Tuesday, April 21, 2009

The June Elections - Who will win? Part 1

The known knowns and the known unknowns

The embedded document gives a conservative prediction as to what is known as to who will win in what districts and what is unknown as of the end of April.

The Known knowns

March 8 have 46 seats that are safely theirs and 9 that are probable = 55 seats

March 14 have 44 seats that are safely theirs and 11 that are probable = 55 seats

The known unknowns

There are going to be 38 seats in all that are going to be competitive and 18 that are really completely unknown as to who will win.

Predictions for the Elections 2009


  1. that is funny ... Bcharreh for March 8 and Jbeil is unknown ... I am sure you are not into Lebanese politics !

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Anon, I will take that slap of the wrist you are completely right. Bcharreh was a table mistake and of course it would go to M14. Sorry for that. With Jbeil you are also right which I overlooked because I did think about the Shia voters that will no doubt go FPM. The predictions are corrected. Thanks.