The Election Results Brokendown

You can get the full breakdown of the election by clicking here.

The interesting bits

The breakdown of the results show that in Beirut One March 14 clearly won by just under 3,000 votes for each candidate. Nayla Tueni received the most amount of votes with 19,985. The voter turnout of Beirut One was only 40% of registered voters which is very low for a district that had such a competitive race but it must be remembered many of these registered voters may not live in Lebanon anymore.

In Zahle Elias Skaff the major traditional political force in Zahle lost by some 4,000 votes, while interestingly Okab Saqr received the most votes in Zahle but is a Shia candidate where the number of Shia are not so numerous. In fact the reason for the March 14 win in Zahle is being put down to the high Sunni turnout in the district. A nice quirk but no more.

Michel Aoun only won his seat by by 2,000 voters in Kerserwan.

In total March 8 won the popular vote by 800,000 to 700,000 but the district system means seats are weighed differently, thus allowing a March 14 victory.

Jumblatt out of March 14? part II

At the beginning of the month I stated that it was likely that Walid Junblatt would drop out of the March 14 coalition after the elections.

Now a video taken on an iphone at a private meeting of Druze hierarchy and released to New TV. Friday Lunch Club has provided a full translation of what he said. What is really causing consternation, apart from Junblatt appearing to have trouble remembering Geagea's (the leader of the Lebanese Forces) name, is his statement that the Sunni and March 14 Christians wanted to sit back while the Druze and Shia fought (in the events of the 7th May) and that he called the Maronite's a "bad breed".

With regard to the elections the pro March 14 commentator Michael Young articulates the consequences succinctly: "The political consequences of his statements will be grave, particularly in Baabda. In Zahleh, too, observers expect Elie Skaff to gain from Maronite retaliation against March 14. In the West Bekaa, the Sunnis have been angry with Jumblatt for some weeks now due to his alliance with Nabih Berri, and his latest comments may have repercussions on how they vote for Wael Abou Faour, even if he probably will be elected. In the Metn, the Kisirwan, and Jbeil, March 14 has just been made weaker, as Michel Aoun will be able to argue that those Maronites who allied with Jumblatt were all along despised by him." Young also believes that the video was released deliberatley by Jumblatt.

Jumblatt to drop out of March 14?

It is expected that Jumblatt will drop out of the March 14 coalition after the elections. This decision is expected as Jumblatt has increasingly distanced himself from the coalition after disputes on electoral candidates. Jumblatt has largely being balancing between all the political factions as to where candidates are allocated. Further to this, a member of Jumblatt's inner circle stated that he expects this move to occur but has not been told directly by Jumblatt. This senior Druze community member stated that this change of course by Jumblatt is due to the regional and international climate and the Obama administrations plans for the region.

March 14 Launch Electoral Platform

March 14 have launched a 14 point plan for the elections:

1. The protection of Lebanon from Israeli attacks and the retrieval of Shebaa Farms through the full execution of Resolution 1701.

2. The imposition of the state authority over all its lands according to the Taёf Accord so that “there are no weapons besides those of the state’s”

3. The termination of the disagreement with Syria which adopted since 1974 the policy of military neutralization and establish normal and friendly ties with it according to the Taёf Accord and common interests. This requires the termination of Syrian intrusion in Lebanese affairs and the continuation of diplomatic ties and the demarcation of borders between the two states starting from Shebaa farms. This also requires settling the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails and the termination of military bases located outside Palestinian refugee camps but is under Syrian operatives. Reconsidering unjust agreements made during the Syrian tutelage era will also be required.

4. To keep Lebanon in harmony with the international community based on the UN charter and the international resolutions, as well as avoiding any confrontation with the international community for sectarian reasons contradicting its effective interest and for tensed slogans that does not reflect its pluralism, and to reactivate coexistence in Lebanon.

5. Getting back the traditional role of Lebanon among Arab countries contributing to the achievement of an Arab solidarity that is the first condition for the Arabs to have their rights, and the commitment to support the Palestinian people’s struggle and unity under the leadership of the PLO to attain an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as capital, following the “two states” solution and the Arab peace initiative.

6. The full commitment to refuse the resettlement of the Palestinian brothers in Lebanon, and approving the law project for a constitution amendment proposed by March 14 MPs regarding this subject 6 months earlier and that requires the unanimity of the parliament in order to amend the constitutional article of the resettlement.

7. The completion of the establishment of the state and its institutions, after the charter of coexistence, with the application of the Taef agreement and the constitution, reaching a democratic state that ensures equality between the citizens in rights and duties despite their sectarian affiliation. The initiation of a new electoral law reducing the electoral age to 18.

8. To commit to the requirements of the international tribunal for Lebanon to unveil the truth and to establish justice, immunizing Lebanon’s sovereignty, putting an end to the political assassinations.

9. Procure the necessary moves insuring the comeback of all displaced finalizing the file completely.

10. Protecting Lebanon and the Lebanese from the world financial crisis, preserving the monetary stability, keeping the inflation at law rates, and to profit from Paris 3 conference.

11. To commit to economical, financial and monetary policies in all fields and throughout Lebanon, eliminating the inconvenient in front of investments giving the priority to projects insuring quality job opportunities to the Lebanese.

12. Giving a bigger role to the woman in the social, economical and political life, and to enable the woman legally after law amendments especially that of the elections.

13. To commit to the Lebanese expatriates in the world supporting the independence of Lebanon, its sovereignty and prosperity, ensuring they have the same duties and rights as the local inhabitants, giving them the opportunity of investing and working in Lebanon.

14. Giving additional care to the environmental issues in Lebanon with a national strategy to apply the laws regarding this subject.

The Christians and the Elections

The Shia have Hassan Nasrallah, the Sunni Saad Hariri and the Druze Walid Junblatt. The Christians however, have many prominent figures fighting for their attention the most significant being: Amin Gemayel (Kataeb), Samir Geagea (LF), Michel Aoun (FPM) and Sleiman Franjieh (Marada). This contest over Christian leadership is pulling the community apart with the vital split being between March 14 aligned Christian parties (Gemayel's Kataeb and Geagea's LF) and March 8 (Michel Aoun's FPM and Franjieh's Marada). Further to this, there are the many Christians that are not supporters of any Christian party or any Christian leader. These non-aligned Christian will no doubt be intensively courted during the elections.

The internal division means that this election is a pivotal and dangerous one for the Christian population of Lebanon - unlike the last election of 2005 where the Christians were largely insignificant. The Christians will have a vital say in who attains the edge in the balance of power March 8/March 14; Shia/Sunni; Hezbollah/Future; allies of the US and Saudi Arabia/Syria and Iran.

In the upcoming general election the areas with a high risk of violence are expected to be those with predominately Christian populations and prominent numbers of both March 8 and March 14 supporters, such as in the Metn, Kora, Zgharta and Batroun.

There have already been several gun battles over the last few months. One of the most prominent incidents was gun fight between the Lebanese Forces (March 14) and Marada (March 8) that started over a argument about political posters. Most recently an argument in the coastal town of Shekka in the north of Lebanon developed into a fight and exchange of gunfire between Marada and the Lebanese Forces.

Harri and Nasrallah exchange

An important exchange has occurred between Future Movement leader Hariri and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Harri has stated that he will not form a coalition with Hezbollah or any March 8th group stating that the Lebanese must make their democratic between March 8 and March 14. While Nasrallah in a speech claimed that the realities of Lebanon necessitates a coalition between the two blocs and is the only way Lebanon can function.