Dispelling Lebanon Election Myths

Previously, I had a go at Noe and Young for contradictions in their analysis. Yet, their contributions in allowing people to understand the Lebanese political context and the elections are important, especially having read the some of the international commentary that is fundamentally wrong. These international commentators have created three central myths around the elections that are deconstructed one by one below. If only international commentators that came to Lebanon for the elections, or not at all, would read more Noe or Young!

1. A solid majority of Lebanese Christians voted against the list of Michel Aoun (as stated by Friedman in his candy floss covered article)

The FPM itself has 10 MPs, which is the same as the LF and Kataeb combined so the FPM is still the largest Christian party. While, the Change and Reform bloc consists of 27 MPs only beaten by the March 14 bloc itself. A solid majority of Christians did not vote against Aoun.

2. A solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri (again Friedman)

The popular vote went 800,000 for March 8 (and FPM) and 700,000 for March 14. A solid majority of all Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 coalition. This was still a confessional electoral system and the vote was split along confessional lines, except in the Christian areas, thus "all Lebanese" did not vote for March 14.

3.Obama's speech won the elections for March 14 and that the visits by Biden and Clinton persuaded Christian voters to vote for March 14 (Simon Tisdall of the Guardian and many other international commentators)

While, of course this is not very tangible and is a simple matter of opinion I challenge this comment on the basis of where the elections were won:

Zahle that went 7-0 to March 14 a result even the most ardent March 14 supporters were not expecting. The primary reason for this win is the 70% turnout of the Sunni population that occurred because of extensive persuasion by Saad Hariri. I have been told by someone working at the Kataeb offices on election day that Hariri made a call to coax Sunni voters to go out and vote, at around 3pm they came in bus loads. The idea that this exceptional Sunni turnout was becuase they were inspired by the Obama/Biden/Clinton (OBC) brigade to go out and vote in such force is highly suspect.

In Beirut One, the other vital district, it may be more believable that the OBC brigade had an some sort of effect. Personally, I feel it is much more likely that May 7th of last year when Hezbollah took over much of Beirut and the Aoun-Hezbollah agreement over 2006 cost the FPM the five seats in this district.

In both districts and nationally Patriarch Sfeir's last minute intervention on the side of March 14 is seen as having a significant effect in persuading Christian voters to go vote for March 14. But of course for most western commentators this does not fit into the secular-democratic-Obama-miracle that is March 14 against Iran narrative they are constructing.

--This article was edited after a comment corrected a sloppy sentence on the 12th June.

The Christians and the Elections

The Shia have Hassan Nasrallah, the Sunni Saad Hariri and the Druze Walid Junblatt. The Christians however, have many prominent figures fighting for their attention the most significant being: Amin Gemayel (Kataeb), Samir Geagea (LF), Michel Aoun (FPM) and Sleiman Franjieh (Marada). This contest over Christian leadership is pulling the community apart with the vital split being between March 14 aligned Christian parties (Gemayel's Kataeb and Geagea's LF) and March 8 (Michel Aoun's FPM and Franjieh's Marada). Further to this, there are the many Christians that are not supporters of any Christian party or any Christian leader. These non-aligned Christian will no doubt be intensively courted during the elections.

The internal division means that this election is a pivotal and dangerous one for the Christian population of Lebanon - unlike the last election of 2005 where the Christians were largely insignificant. The Christians will have a vital say in who attains the edge in the balance of power March 8/March 14; Shia/Sunni; Hezbollah/Future; allies of the US and Saudi Arabia/Syria and Iran.

In the upcoming general election the areas with a high risk of violence are expected to be those with predominately Christian populations and prominent numbers of both March 8 and March 14 supporters, such as in the Metn, Kora, Zgharta and Batroun.

There have already been several gun battles over the last few months. One of the most prominent incidents was gun fight between the Lebanese Forces (March 14) and Marada (March 8) that started over a argument about political posters. Most recently an argument in the coastal town of Shekka in the north of Lebanon developed into a fight and exchange of gunfire between Marada and the Lebanese Forces.