The Prediction Wallchart

Walking the streets of Beirut the other day I bumped into a choir boy who told me about the latest project he had been working on. "Every World Cup, to compensate for our repeated non-qualification, the Welsh have a tradition of predicting the results, which we colour in on a wallchart supplied by newspapers, so I decided to make a similar wallchart especially for the elections," he said. Enjoy!!

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Al Akhbar Predictions

Al-Akhbar has put together the predictions of the four top pollsters in Lebanon Jawad Adra, Abdo Saad, Rabih al-Hibr, and Kamal Feghali. Qifa Nabki has provided a excellent translation of the article.

The predictions:

March 14
Best Result = 71 seats
Worst Result = 48 seats

March 8
Best Result = 80 seats
Worst Result = 57 seats

The districts that the pollsters could not agree on were Saida, Batroun, Koura, Metn, Beirut 1, West Bekka and Zahle.

The June Elections - Who will win? Part 1

The known knowns and the known unknowns

The embedded document gives a conservative prediction as to what is known as to who will win in what districts and what is unknown as of the end of April.

The Known knowns

March 8 have 46 seats that are safely theirs and 9 that are probable = 55 seats

March 14 have 44 seats that are safely theirs and 11 that are probable = 55 seats

The known unknowns

There are going to be 38 seats in all that are going to be competitive and 18 that are really completely unknown as to who will win.

Predictions for the Elections 2009

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