Dispelling Lebanon Election Myths

Previously, I had a go at Noe and Young for contradictions in their analysis. Yet, their contributions in allowing people to understand the Lebanese political context and the elections are important, especially having read the some of the international commentary that is fundamentally wrong. These international commentators have created three central myths around the elections that are deconstructed one by one below. If only international commentators that came to Lebanon for the elections, or not at all, would read more Noe or Young!

1. A solid majority of Lebanese Christians voted against the list of Michel Aoun (as stated by Friedman in his candy floss covered article)

The FPM itself has 10 MPs, which is the same as the LF and Kataeb combined so the FPM is still the largest Christian party. While, the Change and Reform bloc consists of 27 MPs only beaten by the March 14 bloc itself. A solid majority of Christians did not vote against Aoun.

2. A solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri (again Friedman)

The popular vote went 800,000 for March 8 (and FPM) and 700,000 for March 14. A solid majority of all Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 coalition. This was still a confessional electoral system and the vote was split along confessional lines, except in the Christian areas, thus "all Lebanese" did not vote for March 14.

3.Obama's speech won the elections for March 14 and that the visits by Biden and Clinton persuaded Christian voters to vote for March 14 (Simon Tisdall of the Guardian and many other international commentators)

While, of course this is not very tangible and is a simple matter of opinion I challenge this comment on the basis of where the elections were won:

Zahle that went 7-0 to March 14 a result even the most ardent March 14 supporters were not expecting. The primary reason for this win is the 70% turnout of the Sunni population that occurred because of extensive persuasion by Saad Hariri. I have been told by someone working at the Kataeb offices on election day that Hariri made a call to coax Sunni voters to go out and vote, at around 3pm they came in bus loads. The idea that this exceptional Sunni turnout was becuase they were inspired by the Obama/Biden/Clinton (OBC) brigade to go out and vote in such force is highly suspect.

In Beirut One, the other vital district, it may be more believable that the OBC brigade had an some sort of effect. Personally, I feel it is much more likely that May 7th of last year when Hezbollah took over much of Beirut and the Aoun-Hezbollah agreement over 2006 cost the FPM the five seats in this district.

In both districts and nationally Patriarch Sfeir's last minute intervention on the side of March 14 is seen as having a significant effect in persuading Christian voters to go vote for March 14. But of course for most western commentators this does not fit into the secular-democratic-Obama-miracle that is March 14 against Iran narrative they are constructing.

--This article was edited after a comment corrected a sloppy sentence on the 12th June.

The Election Results Brokendown

You can get the full breakdown of the election by clicking here.

The interesting bits

The breakdown of the results show that in Beirut One March 14 clearly won by just under 3,000 votes for each candidate. Nayla Tueni received the most amount of votes with 19,985. The voter turnout of Beirut One was only 40% of registered voters which is very low for a district that had such a competitive race but it must be remembered many of these registered voters may not live in Lebanon anymore.

In Zahle Elias Skaff the major traditional political force in Zahle lost by some 4,000 votes, while interestingly Okab Saqr received the most votes in Zahle but is a Shia candidate where the number of Shia are not so numerous. In fact the reason for the March 14 win in Zahle is being put down to the high Sunni turnout in the district. A nice quirk but no more.

Michel Aoun only won his seat by by 2,000 voters in Kerserwan.

In total March 8 won the popular vote by 800,000 to 700,000 but the district system means seats are weighed differently, thus allowing a March 14 victory.

Zahle and the Politics of Tradition

Zahle a small but central town in the Bekka is becoming a center piece in the battle between March 14 and March 8 . The district of Zahle holds seven seats (two Greek Catholic, one Sunni, one Shia, one Greek Othordox, one Armenian Orthodox and a Maronite seat). The Greek Catholic dominate Zahle and what is making Zahle so interesting is that some of the population are finding it difficult to reconcile politics with tradition.

For some of the population of Zahle, especially the Catholic, that support March 14 they find it a difficult decision to vote against the traditional leader of the Catholics in Zahle Elias Skaff (who has aligned with the March 8 coalition). As one Zahlenian told me "my heart is with Skaff but my politics is with March 14." The numbers of such voters and how this sort of voter acts on election day will prove decisive in who wins the vital seats in the district. What is clear is that Zahle is going to have one of the most intense electoral competions in Lebanon. But March 8 are dominate in the area and in 2005 won all but one of the seats however, Araji who won the Sunni seat in 05 has moved over to the March 14 list from March 8.

The head of March 14 in Zahle Nicholas Fattoush recently released the March 14 list for Zahle Nicolas Fattouch and Antoine Abu Khater (Catholic seats), Elie Marouni (Maronite seat), Joseph Maalouf (Orthodox seat), Assem Araji (Sunni seat), Okab Sakr (Shia seat) and Chant Jinjinian (Armenian Orthodox seat). Of this list the Sunni candidate Araji and Catholic member Fattouch are the only incumbents. Elias Skaff, the head of the March 8 in Zahle, is still yet to release his list for the district but is expected to do so soon.

Skaff himself is completely confident of his victory in his families traditional heartland. Skaff stated that the relationship between his family and the Zahle community goes back a 100 years and would not be broken now. There is concern about violence in Zahle after an incident between two men that shot at Kataeb supporters that led to two being killed. Skaff strongly denies that these men had anything to do with him despite Kataeb allegations that they were his bodyguards. "These murderers had nothing to do with me but these people came up with their conclusions and continue to mislead people," Skaff said. As to the prospect of violence in the upcoming election Skaff stated that he did not think there would be any problems and was fully confident of complete victory.

In such a tight electoral race that Zahle will no doubt have bodies such as the Constitutional Council will of course be vital. Skaff stated that he thinks that if no agreement can be reached then the President should impose the decision. "You cannot have the elections without the Constitutional Council," Skaff stated.

Zahle also has a female candidate running for the Catholic seat. Magda Baradi is running as an independent in the Zahle seat but has many prominent billboards all around Zahle and outside. It will be interesting if Baradi can break through in this traditional political town.