Electoral Reform and Proportional Representation

The most popular politician in the country, if not the region and if Obama was not around who knows... Ziad Baroud has put his full weight behind Proportional Representation (PR).

It is clear that the current electoral system is not politically viable and a entirely new system will have to be adopted. The Boutros Commission proposed a semi-PR system and although rejected for the 09 election will be taken up again and debated for the 2013 election and a form of PR is expected to be used in the 2010 election (for a guide on different electoral systems).

So to PR:

"The principal of PR is that the seats in a constituency are divided according to the number of votes for party lists, but there are considerable variations in how this is implemented," Pippa Norris the election supremo summed up the PR electoral system.

So why are those interested in electoral reform in Lebanon going all starry eyed for PR, as opposed to the current first past the post (AKA plurality)?

Plurality emphasizes governability while PR focuses on the inclusion of the minority voice.

John Stuart Mill has outlined clearly, very shortly after the PR system was proposed, a wonderful defense of its virtues:

"When the individuals composing the majority would no longer be reduced to Hobson's choice, of either voting for the person brought forward by their local leaders, or not voting at all; when the nominees of the leaders would have to encounter the competition not solely of the candidate of the minority, but of all the men of established reputation in the country who were willing to serve; it would be impossible any longer to foist upon the electors the first person who presents himself with the catchwords of the party in his mouth, and three or four thousand pounds in his pocket. The majority would insist on having a candidate worthy of their choice, or they would carry their votes somewhere else."

Was the PR system made for Lebanon I hear...

Positives and negatives of PR in Lebanon:

1. Easing political polarization - PR could allow for independents to come through. For instance if Mouth Lebanon was one district and there were 10 seats if Lebanese Forces and Kataeb got 200,000 votes, Change and Reform 300,000 votes and then lets say Lahoud's Democratic Renewal 100,000 and the newly created "we are going in the center of everything you say party" 100,000 votes and "We are extreme" 100,000. Change and Reform would not win all ten seats as in the plurality system but would receive 3 of the seats, LF 2 and so on (this of course also depends on the type of PR system used). Thus, the system would give representation for all those voters whose votes would have otherwise been 'lost' if it was a first past the post. It would have been easier for a Presidential bloc to have emerged as it would have allowed all 'independents' to run without having to go under a March 8/March 14 list.

2. Creation of national parties but increased sectarianism - If the above system described in Mount Lebanon was done across the nation parties would become a lot more national and not just have political representation, as is the case now, where their supporters are the outright majority. However, becuase political parties in Lebanon are based on confession this would mean that no longer would you vote for a Shia candidate if you were Christian and vise versa. The likely scenario for Lebanon would be the further entrenching of sectarianism with Christians only voting for Christian parties and Sunni for Sunni.... You would not longer get Muslims voting in Christian representatives that has been a major complaint of the Christian community.

3. Rise of extremist parties - While the advantages are that more parties can express their political views and the a fuller plurality of opinion this also comes with the disadvantage that those with more extremist views are not pushed to the center by the main parties. The "We are extreme" party no longer has to make deals with mainstream parties and can now go it alone.

4. Unstable coalitions - As stated at the start PR emphasizes the inclusion of the minority voice where as plurality focuses on governability. Thus, PR could have the potential to weaken an already fragile governmental structure. It is not clear that PR is the best system for inceasing the capacity and strength of the state. You just have to look at Italy and Israel to see how unstable coalitions can be ruinous to the creation of stable governments. Unlikely coalitions are nothing new in Lebanon but having many of these coalitions based on my enemy's enemy.... could be potentially devastating.

A web of complexity awaits the debate about PR that has more forms than Lebanon has cedars...So let the debate begin

Carter Observation Mission

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Paying for votes

The Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) launched its perliminary findings for its finance investigation. Vote buying occurred, according to the LTA, widely in Zahle, Saida, Zghorta, Metn, Batroun and West Bekka. How much was paid for a Vote varied: Saida the price was $60-100; $800 in Zahle and up to $3,000 in Zghorta. The LTA also noted that a large amount of financial abuses were done before the campaign monitoring period began. A full report will be published at the end of the summer.

Dispelling Lebanon Election Myths

Previously, I had a go at Noe and Young for contradictions in their analysis. Yet, their contributions in allowing people to understand the Lebanese political context and the elections are important, especially having read the some of the international commentary that is fundamentally wrong. These international commentators have created three central myths around the elections that are deconstructed one by one below. If only international commentators that came to Lebanon for the elections, or not at all, would read more Noe or Young!

1. A solid majority of Lebanese Christians voted against the list of Michel Aoun (as stated by Friedman in his candy floss covered article)

The FPM itself has 10 MPs, which is the same as the LF and Kataeb combined so the FPM is still the largest Christian party. While, the Change and Reform bloc consists of 27 MPs only beaten by the March 14 bloc itself. A solid majority of Christians did not vote against Aoun.

2. A solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri (again Friedman)

The popular vote went 800,000 for March 8 (and FPM) and 700,000 for March 14. A solid majority of all Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 coalition. This was still a confessional electoral system and the vote was split along confessional lines, except in the Christian areas, thus "all Lebanese" did not vote for March 14.

3.Obama's speech won the elections for March 14 and that the visits by Biden and Clinton persuaded Christian voters to vote for March 14 (Simon Tisdall of the Guardian and many other international commentators)

While, of course this is not very tangible and is a simple matter of opinion I challenge this comment on the basis of where the elections were won:

Zahle that went 7-0 to March 14 a result even the most ardent March 14 supporters were not expecting. The primary reason for this win is the 70% turnout of the Sunni population that occurred because of extensive persuasion by Saad Hariri. I have been told by someone working at the Kataeb offices on election day that Hariri made a call to coax Sunni voters to go out and vote, at around 3pm they came in bus loads. The idea that this exceptional Sunni turnout was becuase they were inspired by the Obama/Biden/Clinton (OBC) brigade to go out and vote in such force is highly suspect.

In Beirut One, the other vital district, it may be more believable that the OBC brigade had an some sort of effect. Personally, I feel it is much more likely that May 7th of last year when Hezbollah took over much of Beirut and the Aoun-Hezbollah agreement over 2006 cost the FPM the five seats in this district.

In both districts and nationally Patriarch Sfeir's last minute intervention on the side of March 14 is seen as having a significant effect in persuading Christian voters to go vote for March 14. But of course for most western commentators this does not fit into the secular-democratic-Obama-miracle that is March 14 against Iran narrative they are constructing.

--This article was edited after a comment corrected a sloppy sentence on the 12th June.

EU Perliminary Statement

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The IFES Review

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The Final Result

The most important district of this election was Zahle; the winner of this election missed by all except supporters was the March 14 coalition. March 14 finished with 71 seats (with two independents) and March 8 finished with 58.

Zahle was expected to go to March 8 (and FPM) but instead it was announced that all seven seats went to March 14.

Overall in the Christian districts, where this election was really occurring, the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb and Christian "independents" of March 14 made vital gains in Beirut One, Zahle and Metn, while also maintaining their seats in Batroun.

The FPM although increasing the number of seats in their Change and Reform coalition to 27 from 21 were unable to gain enough to achieve an electoral win for the March 8 coalition.

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Election Day @ 7pm Polls Closed

The Polls have closed and without significant incident, although there has been a lot of moaning about long queues at the polling station. Come on!! So all in all at the close of play for the voting process well done Lebanon!

Michel Ghanem on LBC has announced that 32 seats have been guaranteed for the opposition March 8 + FPM and 26 for March 14.

Now let the all important stage of the results begin!

IFES Carnegie Final Election Brief

IFES and Carnegie gave a final briefing to journalists for the election on Sunday. Following the last joint briefing by IFES and Carnegie in April.

Richard Chambers, Party Head of IFES in Lebanon, stated that there is an electoral competition in almost all districts. March 8 and March 14 have presented candidate lists almost throughout the country and this has been added to by independent lists in some districts. Thus, these elections are the competitive in a while.

Paul Salem, of Carnegie, stated that these are the first proper free elections since 1972 and outlined three posts-election scenarios:

1. Hung parliament what Salem sees as most likely. "This is where each camp holds large minorities and a group of independents, close to the President, holding the balance of votes," Salem said. Outside powers of Saudi, US and Syria are directly and indirectly trying to push for this occurrence Salem stated. Interestingly, Salem claims that Syria does not want an all out March 8th victory because Aoun has a difficult relationship with Syria and Hezbollah is closer to Iran. So for Syria the best result is a hung parliament and Syria successfully sold this idea to the US and Saudi as the best option, according to Salem.

2. March 14 win. March 14 have stated that they will refuse to grant veto power to March 8 but Salem warns this could lead to violence and should instead get clear commitments from March 8 to move forward on key political and economic issues.

3. March 8 win. Salem states that this could lead to a situation where there is a collapse in support for Lebanon from the international community and the Gulf states. This could lead to "a collapse in confidence in Lebanon and a precipitous decline into economic and social unrest."

The Ministry Guide to the Lebanese Elections

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The Offical Polling and Counting Handbook

Here is the polling and counting handbook that has been issued by the Ministry of Interior:

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Biden tying aid to votes

Vice-President Biden is in town and among the tabouleh surrounding his visit he has said nothing new. The policy that US will tie aid to votes was reiterated and the standard we support no one expecpt for the people that we support.....

Biden, the highest US ranking official to visit Lebanon in 26 years, stated “We will evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the shape of the new government”. Biden then did a lovely rhetorical circle by stating that “I do not come here to back any particular party or any particular person. I come here to back certain principles.”

Thus, the same dance between America and Iran is being played out in Lebanon. However, all we be pleased that the tempo is slower and although there is no love music the death metal has at last been put away.

EU Media Monitoring

An interview with Mirella Marchese, the head of Media Monitoring as part of the EU Observation Mission.

What is the main objective of international media monitoring?

The main goal of media monitoring within election observation missions is to assess whether parties and candidates gain fair and equitable access to the media, whether political contestants are covered in an unbiased manner, whether the media adhere to regulations on coverage.

Will there be an interim report of media abuses or will reporting only occur after the elections?

In accordance with standard election observation missions’ methodology and in line with the principle of non-interference in the election process, media monitoring findings will be issued at the end of the campaign and will be part of a Preliminary Statement presented immediately after E-day. A more comprehensive analysis will be part of a Final Report normally issued within two months of the completion of the electoral process.

Are the qualitative and quantitative methodology used standardized for all countries or is the methodology tailored to each situation?

A standard media monitoring methodology used by an election observation mission would produce an analysis of the distribution of media time and space given to political contestants. The project aims to provide a clear and reliable observation of the distribution of time and space, based on the measurement of the precise amount of coverage received and its tone. The quantitative analysis of the amount of media coverage and the tone of the coverage constitutes the core of methodology adopted by every mission. However, same variables in the research design can vary according to the different contests. The media analyst will need to refine the monitoring methodology according to the media and political landscape, to the different kinds of elections and to the legal framework in a given country. The methodology usually includes a qualitative analysis, too. The qualitative analysis can focus on a range of different aspects including: instances of hate speech and inflammatory language, media coverage of voter education, the formats used to cover election issues.

What is the size of the media monitoring team?

A media unit of an election observation mission is usually composed of a media analyst and a number of national media assistants. The number of media monitors depends on the size of the sample selected for the analysis. The European Election Observation Mission to Lebanon is currently working with a media monitoring team of 14 media monitors. Our monitored sample includes 8 Lebanese TV stations and 4 newspapers.

"May 7 was a glorious day"

A lot of discussion has occurred regarding the two speeches that Hassan Nasrallah has given: the first on Friday where Nasrallah made the curious decision to focus his speech on the May events of last year and the second on Tuesday where he focused on the more expected subject of the upcoming Israeli maneuvers.

While the Tuesday speech mentioned nothing of real note in what was said Nasrallah was fiery in his delivery. It almost seems Hezbollah are bored with the current calm that is prevailing over Lebanese politics.

The Friday speech was particularly strange. Nasrallah decided to focus much of the speech on the events of May, which seems curious given that March 14 where having such a difficult time in galvanizing their supporters on the memory of last May. Nasrallah caused particular consternation by stating:

"I say that May 7 was a glorious day for the resistance in Lebanon. Consequently, May 7 has put Lebanon on the right track towards solution and pulled it out of the stalemate that was imposed on it. "

These comments also put Michel Aoun and the FPM in a very difficult position with its own position and Aoun stated that he "understood" why Nasrallah would make such a statement.

Many seasoned analysts, such as Qifa Nabki and the Angry Arab, are at a complete loss to understand what on earth Nasrallah was trying to do in this speech. Angry Arab goes as far to say that this speech is giving weight to the argument that Hezbollah want to lose this election.

Oriente Lux believes that Nasrallah just wanted to make clear that Hezbollah was in the right during the May events. Explaing that Nasrallah wanted to make clear that May 7th (when Hezbollah undertook the military take over) should not be the focus by May 5th (when the cabinet decisions against Hezbollah's telecommunication network) was made.

Personally I think it was a case of over confidence and a political miscalculation, which to Nasrallah's credit are not frequent occurances. The result of his speech could be that he gets bums off seats and into voting booths for March 14. Those people that are not for the March 14 coalition but cannot tolerate Nasrallah stating that the ""May 7 was a glorious day" will now be more likely to put their vote in that booth or take the money being offered.

Zahle and the Politics of Tradition

Zahle a small but central town in the Bekka is becoming a center piece in the battle between March 14 and March 8 . The district of Zahle holds seven seats (two Greek Catholic, one Sunni, one Shia, one Greek Othordox, one Armenian Orthodox and a Maronite seat). The Greek Catholic dominate Zahle and what is making Zahle so interesting is that some of the population are finding it difficult to reconcile politics with tradition.

For some of the population of Zahle, especially the Catholic, that support March 14 they find it a difficult decision to vote against the traditional leader of the Catholics in Zahle Elias Skaff (who has aligned with the March 8 coalition). As one Zahlenian told me "my heart is with Skaff but my politics is with March 14." The numbers of such voters and how this sort of voter acts on election day will prove decisive in who wins the vital seats in the district. What is clear is that Zahle is going to have one of the most intense electoral competions in Lebanon. But March 8 are dominate in the area and in 2005 won all but one of the seats however, Araji who won the Sunni seat in 05 has moved over to the March 14 list from March 8.

The head of March 14 in Zahle Nicholas Fattoush recently released the March 14 list for Zahle Nicolas Fattouch and Antoine Abu Khater (Catholic seats), Elie Marouni (Maronite seat), Joseph Maalouf (Orthodox seat), Assem Araji (Sunni seat), Okab Sakr (Shia seat) and Chant Jinjinian (Armenian Orthodox seat). Of this list the Sunni candidate Araji and Catholic member Fattouch are the only incumbents. Elias Skaff, the head of the March 8 in Zahle, is still yet to release his list for the district but is expected to do so soon.

Skaff himself is completely confident of his victory in his families traditional heartland. Skaff stated that the relationship between his family and the Zahle community goes back a 100 years and would not be broken now. There is concern about violence in Zahle after an incident between two men that shot at Kataeb supporters that led to two being killed. Skaff strongly denies that these men had anything to do with him despite Kataeb allegations that they were his bodyguards. "These murderers had nothing to do with me but these people came up with their conclusions and continue to mislead people," Skaff said. As to the prospect of violence in the upcoming election Skaff stated that he did not think there would be any problems and was fully confident of complete victory.

In such a tight electoral race that Zahle will no doubt have bodies such as the Constitutional Council will of course be vital. Skaff stated that he thinks that if no agreement can be reached then the President should impose the decision. "You cannot have the elections without the Constitutional Council," Skaff stated.

Zahle also has a female candidate running for the Catholic seat. Magda Baradi is running as an independent in the Zahle seat but has many prominent billboards all around Zahle and outside. It will be interesting if Baradi can break through in this traditional political town.

The risk of violence

The risk of violence in Lebanon is an ever present threat and with the prospect of a tightly contested election many are scared of the prospect that the electoral competition could become violent. Recently there have been a few minor secutiry incidents but it has not gripped Lebanon as some media reports have suggested. The main incidents have been shots fired while prominent candidates were delivering speeches and the break in at Ibrhaim Kanaan's parents house (Kanaan has posted pictures of the damage).

There have been several incidents of billboards being vandalized either by being ripped down (as with the FPM candidate pictured) or being burnt (as with the Future poster). However, as long as the frustrations are meted out on billboards not too many people will mind.

Human Rights

Human Rights Watch has released a report focusing on the areas of concern in Lebanon with regard to Human Rights and demanded that candidates for the elections make human rights part of their platform.

"Lebanese politicians need to move beyond their slogans of promoting ‘justice, reform and equality' and start explaining exactly how they plan to achieve these objectives," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. "At a minimum, they should promise to put an end to torture and amend laws that discriminate against women and Palestinian refugees."

The report highlights five areas of human rights abuse that it perceives should be addressed by candidates and gives guidelines on how the candidates should act on these measures. The five areas are (in the order in the report):

1. Torture
2. The Disappeared
3. Women's rights
4. Migrant Workers
5. Palestinian Refugee's

Constitutional Council - The end of the saga?

The Constitutional Council (picture of the council before it disbanded in 05), or the lack of it, is Lebanon's biggest issue regarding the upcoming election. It is the only body that is able to decide on electoral disputes and ensures the constitutionality and legality of the electoral law. The problem is that since the Constitutional Council was disbanded in 2005 after the last elections the minimum of five judges needed for the council to function have yet to be appointed. However, there are glimmers of hope that there may be agreement on who will make up the council as the Council of Ministers discuss the issue today. It has been reported that Sleiman has stated that if the Council of Ministers cannot decide by consensus then the appoinments will be put to a vote.

As to who the members could be As-Safir reported that the opposition has decided on two of five members yet to be elected former minister Assaad Diab, a Shiite, and Greek Orthodox judge Salah Mukhaiber. Sleiman recommended Raymond Eid, a Maronite, while Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt was likely to name Druze candidate Suheil Abdel Samad. Siniora will decide the Sunni member.

Al Akhbar Predictions

Al-Akhbar has put together the predictions of the four top pollsters in Lebanon Jawad Adra, Abdo Saad, Rabih al-Hibr, and Kamal Feghali. Qifa Nabki has provided a excellent translation of the article.

The predictions:

March 14
Best Result = 71 seats
Worst Result = 48 seats

March 8
Best Result = 80 seats
Worst Result = 57 seats

The districts that the pollsters could not agree on were Saida, Batroun, Koura, Metn, Beirut 1, West Bekka and Zahle.

The Electoral List

In every district the candidates of March 8 and March 14 are listed in an electoral list, that are often give exuberant names such as the Tripoli Solidarity List or The Will of Zgharta-Zawyi List. Once the list is finalised the names are put on a pre-printed ballot paper (as pictured above) and distributed to voters. This list can be a torturing process for the two coalitions where negotiations as to who is placed on the list can lead to painful internal disputes. This has already happened most prominently with March 14 and the withdrawl of Nassib Lahoud from the Metn, the reason Lahoud stated was that he would not be on an electoral list that he did not have a part in creating. While a lack of agreement between Nabih Berri and Michel Aoun over the list in the district of Jezzine is setting up an interesting political battle.

The various electoral lists have been dripping through and the hotly contested district of Metn announced, while in Beirut 1 March 8 have announced their list but March 14 are still waiting to announce their Armenian candidates. One of the most important districts in this election, in terms of competitiveness, is Zahle and neither March 8/14 are yet to announce their candidate.

In almost all the lists there is a dominate party, from either the March 8 or March 14 coalition, heading it but on the list there are usually many 'independent' candidates. Take for example the Change and Reform list in Jbeil headed by Aoun's FPM party. The list contains two FPM party members Simon Ramia and Walid al-Khoury who are both running for the two Maronite seats but for the Shia seat a non-FPM member Abbas Hashem has been placed on the Change and Reform List. Thus, Hashem is known as a Change and Reform MP and not an FPM MP.

Interestingly in Jbeil there is one of the few non-March 14 or March 8 electoral lists headed by a former adviser to the President Nazem Khoury called the Jbeil Independent Decision List.Other lists that are headed by 'independent' candidates are in Metn and Tripoli. In the Metn the 'March 14' list is headed by Michel Murr who is viewed as an 'independent' and the Tripoli Solidarity List headed by Mohammad Mikati also seen as 'independent' (both are major political/business figures in their respective districts). Independent at the moment is translating as aligned with the President.

Important Electoral Lists - Some lists are self evident as to whether it is a March 8 or March 14 list with the name of the party i.e. Future list. Some like those below differ:

Change and Reform List (March 8) - This is the electoral list headed by Michel Aoun's FPM (The Free Patriotic Movement).

The Will of Zgharta-Zawyi List (March 8) - Headed by Sleiman Frangieh head of the Marada movement.

Tripoli Solidarity List (March 14) - Headed by Mohammad Najib Mikati who is an 'independent' and while many on this list are also 'independent' this list is viewed as March 14 list as it has three March 14 candidates on it.

The Metn Salvation List (March 14)- Headed by 'independent' Michel Murr that includes 2 Kataeb candidates (M14), 1 Lebanese Forces (M14) and 4 'Independent' candidates.