Lebanon's Electoral System

A briefing paper by IFES on the Lebanese Electoral System. Further information can be found at www.ifes.org/lebanon
Lebanese Electoral System

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Women and the elections

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Aoun's FPM have caused quite a stir with this poster calling you to, "be beautiful and vote". So much so that they felt the need to write an article defending the campaign (in Arabic). The Feminist Collective stated 12 reasons as to why they found this billboard offensive, while Menassat wrote a story with the title "Be Beautiful and Vote" or "Be Intelligent and Vote Blank?" And +961 posted a great blog on the billboard war that this poster has sparked and the general contest that billboards have sparked.

This debate must lead to an actual discussion of women and the elections.

Of the 12 female candidates for this election only three are likely to be elected and all are attached to powerful families and/or male figures: Nayla Tunei, Bahia Hariri and Stridea Geagea. This will mean that the number of women in the Lebanese Parliament is likely to stay the same at three. IRIN articulated how bad this situation is by stating that this number was, " far fewer than politically restricted neighbors such as Syria, which had 30 women MPs out of 250; Jordan which had 13 out of 165; and Egypt which had 31 out of 718."

A quota for women?

Aoun has been criticized by the fact that the FPM are not fielding any female candidates. Aoun responded by stating that he had asked three women to run "but they apologized saying they were not ready.” Aoun went on to defend his record with regard to women's rights stating that he supported the draft law wanting to establish a quota for women in Parliament and that “women should have 50% of the parliamentary seats, not 10 or 20%.”

In an interview with Now Lebanon Nayla Tueni stated she was against a quota. "I’m not with the quota for women because it’s like you’re putting limits for women. It’s not ideal to say, for example, “You only have 15 seats for women.” I’d like to see a much bigger number of women in parliament, and there should be.

The debate as to whether a quota should be established or not for women certainly needs a to be continued and focused on a lot more. While, Lebanon may have a better situation for women in the job market the parliamentary representation of the expected 3 out of 128 is abysmal; women do after all make up 52% of the population.

The 12 female candidates for this elections are:

Ghada al-Dandashi Sunni, Tripoli
Hoda Sankari Sunni, Tripoli
Regine Kantara Maronite, Tripoli

Sethrida Geagea Maronite, March 14, Bcharre

Ibtisam Saadi Sunni, Baalbek-Hermel

Magda Bridi Catholic, Zahli

Norma Ferzli, Greek Orthodox, West Bekka-Rashaya

Therese Rizk Allah Maronite, Baabda

Gilberte Zouwien Maronite, FPM, Kesrwan

Nayla Tueni, Greek Orthodox, March 14 affiliated, Beriut 1

Ghenwa Jalloul, Sunni, Beirut 3

Bahia Hariri, Sunni, March 14, Saida



UPDATE: This billboard appears to be getting more and more popular as the English paper The Times included the billboard in its picture of the day.

Corruption yes but the focus should be the increased sectarianism!

The New York Times correspondent Robert Worth has given the Lebanese elections their first intentional exposure in the English language press. Worth makes some pretty big claims stating that, "The parliamentary elections here in June are shaping up to be among the most expensive ever held anywhere, with hundreds of millions of dollars streaming into this small country from around the globe."

There is no doubt hundreds of millions of dollars will stream into Lebanon and I have already had people email me asking which parties are offering free flights; by the way I don't know! I am at a loss at how the editors of the NYT let such hyperbole slip through "the most expensive ever held anywhere". Somehow I think the US elections may beat Lebanon.... But don't worry he has covered himself with wonderful words such as "shaping up" and "among". No doubt these will 'probably be the best elections in the world!'

Worth is however, correct in highlighting the wide scale corruption and vote buying that will go on in this election. The article articulates how systemic corruption in the Lebanese electoral system has become. "Lebanon has campaign spending limits this year for the first time, and the Arab world’s first system to monitor that spending, by the Lebanese chapter of Transparency International. But the limits — which are very loose to begin with — apply only in the last two months of the campaign. And they are laughably easy to circumvent, according to election monitors and Lebanese officials."

When I talked to Gaëlle Kibranian, the Project Director for Lebanese Transparency International (LTA), she denied that candidates are ignoring this issue completely. "The main political parties/blocs in Lebanon are using the promotion of transparency as part of their electoral program especially when it comes to campaign finance. They are all taking the question very seriously, trying to abide by the law, in order to avoid future challenges." Kibranian did not deny however, the serious shortcomings in the law and not to mention the fact that the Constituinal Council (CC) is still yet to be established. This means that any corruption that the LTA uncover cannot be prosecuted or even looked at officially. There will be more on the issue of the CC in the future.

I can not come to terms with the fact Worth does not mention sectarianism once in the article!! The most serious implication of the 2008 election law is the fact that it has increased sectarian nature of Lebanese politics. Not once! As Kibranian told me, "the main problem in Lebanon remains confessionalism, which shapes the relationship between citizens and state, as well as the lack of separation of powers.These lead to nepotism, clientalism, and patronage." As the Democracy Reporting International report stated on the electoral law the new law accentuates confessional differences and is "increasing the long-term potential for conflict in the country."

It was also interesting the candidates that he picked out. Only Walid Maalouf and Ahmed al-Asaad two very marginal but very pro-US politicians. I actually am a fan of Robert Worth but I think he needed a bit less hyperbole and more thought on this one.

Jumblatt out of March 14? part II

At the beginning of the month I stated that it was likely that Walid Junblatt would drop out of the March 14 coalition after the elections.

Now a video taken on an iphone at a private meeting of Druze hierarchy and released to New TV. Friday Lunch Club has provided a full translation of what he said. What is really causing consternation, apart from Junblatt appearing to have trouble remembering Geagea's (the leader of the Lebanese Forces) name, is his statement that the Sunni and March 14 Christians wanted to sit back while the Druze and Shia fought (in the events of the 7th May) and that he called the Maronite's a "bad breed".

With regard to the elections the pro March 14 commentator Michael Young articulates the consequences succinctly: "The political consequences of his statements will be grave, particularly in Baabda. In Zahleh, too, observers expect Elie Skaff to gain from Maronite retaliation against March 14. In the West Bekaa, the Sunnis have been angry with Jumblatt for some weeks now due to his alliance with Nabih Berri, and his latest comments may have repercussions on how they vote for Wael Abou Faour, even if he probably will be elected. In the Metn, the Kisirwan, and Jbeil, March 14 has just been made weaker, as Michel Aoun will be able to argue that those Maronites who allied with Jumblatt were all along despised by him." Young also believes that the video was released deliberatley by Jumblatt.

The June Elections - Who will win? Part 1

The known knowns and the known unknowns

The embedded document gives a conservative prediction as to what is known as to who will win in what districts and what is unknown as of the end of April.

The Known knowns

March 8 have 46 seats that are safely theirs and 9 that are probable = 55 seats

March 14 have 44 seats that are safely theirs and 11 that are probable = 55 seats

The known unknowns

There are going to be 38 seats in all that are going to be competitive and 18 that are really completely unknown as to who will win.

Predictions for the Elections 2009

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Beirut 1 - Keeping it in the family

Lebanon will see many candidates that come from traditional political families. All of the female MPs running for parliament of which there are 8 come from prominent Lebanese families.

The district of Beirut 1 is seeing a particular case of 'carrying on tradition' with Nayla Tueni and Nadim Gemayel both fighting for a seat in the district:

Nayla Tueni the daughter of assassinated journalist, editor and MP Gibran Tueni. Tueni will be running for the Greek Orthodox seat in Beirut 1. Tueni does not belong to a political party or the March 14 coalition but is running as an ally of the coalition. Her main opponent in the Beirut 1 district is current Minister Issam Abu Jamra. Prominet posters such as this one have began to appear in the Beirut 1 district. An interview with Nayla Tueni in Now Lebanon.





Nadim Gemayel is the son of the assassinated former president Bashir Gemayel. In this poster he is positioned in exactly the same way of a famous picture that his father poses in posted all over Beirut. Nadim Gemayel is running in Beirut's 1st district for the Maronite seat.

The OFFICAL ELECTION WEBSITE

Not that I want to shoot myself in the foot by telling you to go elsewhere for information on the elections. But the Ministry of Interior, in association with IFES, has launched a website dedicated to the elections. The Elections 2009 website is a trilingual website to address the specific stakeholders in the elections: the candidates, voters, polling officials, observers and the media. The website provides legal information such as the electoral law and decree related to the election. In addition to this, all the electoral districts are listed with the number of seats for each district and the candidates.

The website also provides information on the electoral system, legal information such as the electoral law and decrees related to the election.

The election website provides information on the SCEC (The Supervisory Commission for Electoral Campaigns). Information includes the mandate of SCEC, by laws, members, regulations and will include reports published by the SCEC.

The website has interactive features such as a list of polling stations that will then allow the voter to type in his/her name and locate where he/she should vote. The website will have a map locating the polling station and a picture of the polling station. Further to this, it will detail the accessibility of the polling station for those voters that need disabled access.

Post elections the full results will be posted on the website. After the 2009 elections have been finalized the website will then be used for the 2010 municipality elections.