Dispelling Lebanon Election Myths

Previously, I had a go at Noe and Young for contradictions in their analysis. Yet, their contributions in allowing people to understand the Lebanese political context and the elections are important, especially having read the some of the international commentary that is fundamentally wrong. These international commentators have created three central myths around the elections that are deconstructed one by one below. If only international commentators that came to Lebanon for the elections, or not at all, would read more Noe or Young!

1. A solid majority of Lebanese Christians voted against the list of Michel Aoun (as stated by Friedman in his candy floss covered article)

The FPM itself has 10 MPs, which is the same as the LF and Kataeb combined so the FPM is still the largest Christian party. While, the Change and Reform bloc consists of 27 MPs only beaten by the March 14 bloc itself. A solid majority of Christians did not vote against Aoun.

2. A solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri (again Friedman)

The popular vote went 800,000 for March 8 (and FPM) and 700,000 for March 14. A solid majority of all Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 coalition. This was still a confessional electoral system and the vote was split along confessional lines, except in the Christian areas, thus "all Lebanese" did not vote for March 14.

3.Obama's speech won the elections for March 14 and that the visits by Biden and Clinton persuaded Christian voters to vote for March 14 (Simon Tisdall of the Guardian and many other international commentators)

While, of course this is not very tangible and is a simple matter of opinion I challenge this comment on the basis of where the elections were won:

Zahle that went 7-0 to March 14 a result even the most ardent March 14 supporters were not expecting. The primary reason for this win is the 70% turnout of the Sunni population that occurred because of extensive persuasion by Saad Hariri. I have been told by someone working at the Kataeb offices on election day that Hariri made a call to coax Sunni voters to go out and vote, at around 3pm they came in bus loads. The idea that this exceptional Sunni turnout was becuase they were inspired by the Obama/Biden/Clinton (OBC) brigade to go out and vote in such force is highly suspect.

In Beirut One, the other vital district, it may be more believable that the OBC brigade had an some sort of effect. Personally, I feel it is much more likely that May 7th of last year when Hezbollah took over much of Beirut and the Aoun-Hezbollah agreement over 2006 cost the FPM the five seats in this district.

In both districts and nationally Patriarch Sfeir's last minute intervention on the side of March 14 is seen as having a significant effect in persuading Christian voters to go vote for March 14. But of course for most western commentators this does not fit into the secular-democratic-Obama-miracle that is March 14 against Iran narrative they are constructing.

--This article was edited after a comment corrected a sloppy sentence on the 12th June.

The Election Results Brokendown

You can get the full breakdown of the election by clicking here.

The interesting bits

The breakdown of the results show that in Beirut One March 14 clearly won by just under 3,000 votes for each candidate. Nayla Tueni received the most amount of votes with 19,985. The voter turnout of Beirut One was only 40% of registered voters which is very low for a district that had such a competitive race but it must be remembered many of these registered voters may not live in Lebanon anymore.

In Zahle Elias Skaff the major traditional political force in Zahle lost by some 4,000 votes, while interestingly Okab Saqr received the most votes in Zahle but is a Shia candidate where the number of Shia are not so numerous. In fact the reason for the March 14 win in Zahle is being put down to the high Sunni turnout in the district. A nice quirk but no more.

Michel Aoun only won his seat by by 2,000 voters in Kerserwan.

In total March 8 won the popular vote by 800,000 to 700,000 but the district system means seats are weighed differently, thus allowing a March 14 victory.

Election Day - upto 5:12pm Beirut Time

6am

The day began at 6am when I set off to Zahle. Going through Sassine in Beirut a heavy military presence was evident. There was a smooth flow of traffic on the way and on arriving at Zahle a military presence was notable at the entrance to the town but not heavily throughout the centre.

7:30am

In Zahle voters were beginning to trickle through to the polling stations. Support for the two political factions March 8 + FPM and March 14 was highly visible, with supporters handing out their pre-printed ballots to supporters. The town was calm and apart from the chaotic parking and traffic all appeared to be running smoothly. Supporters from both coalitions were both happy however, this was first thing in the morning! Taxis were a noticeable addition to the scenery in Zahle I saw a several Hello Taxis transporting to the party headquarters of Skaff voters who I assume have been brought from abroad to vote.

10:30 am

Made way back to Beirut, again traffic was running smoothly and apart from supporters doing the usual contest with flags and political hand signals (maybe a will provide a guide to these one day!) all was calm.

11:30 am

Went over to the Dahiya to see what is happening in this part of town. All is calm and well organized. On the way going through the old airport road was nice to see Amal and Future supporters mingling (more or less).

12:30pm

Went to Beirut One, Sodeco, and saw that at lot of movement was occurring at Beydoun street. There I witnessed lots of army trying to control a situation between Nadim Gemayel supporters and FPM. Nadim Gemayel's sister (who I do not know the name of so someone please inform me if you know) trying to assist her brother's supporters but was being kept away. Then a man was forcefully removed, without too much resistance, by two army personnel that was cheered by FPM supporters. Another man was also arrested but was unable to see clearly what went on. The army quickly maintained calm and even allowed voters to continue voting while trying to establish full security.

Away from my personal experience

Interior Minister Baroud announced that by 3pm voter turnout was at 40% compared to 2005 where voter turnout was 45% in total and confirmed that significant security incidents have not occurred and traffic did not prove to be an issue.

At 5:12pm so far so good.

Two General Michels One President

Aoun after the 2005 election gained 70% of the Christian vote and subsequently feels that he has the right to be President. However, the President is not elected by the popular vote the Parliament elects the President. Or in the case of President Sleiman the big men of Lebanon are flown off to Doha and finally agree, after nearly going to war, that the head of the army General Michel Sleiman will be the next President. In the Doha agreement Sleiman was given a security portfolio and was given three ministers: the Defense Minister (Elias Murr), Interior Ministry (Ziad Baroud) and a Minister without portfolio (Yousef Taqla). After these elections Sleiman is likely to increase the number of direct supporters in the parliament as the number of 'independents' are most likely going to increase thus give Sleiman more power. It is likely then after these elections that Sleiman will gain more ministerial apponinments, maybe as many as seven, after these elections and will see Sleiman in a more political role rather than a security role.

This of course does not please Aoun and what has irked Aoun especially is that many of the 'indpendent' candidates are in what he sees as 'his' districts. Talking to an FPM supporter he posed the question 'why is it that in Jbeil, Metn and Kesrouan there are all these 'independents'? Why are there no independents running in Bcharre for instance?'

Aoun himself in a recent speech made clear how he felt about the issue of 'independents':

"The purpose behind this action is to dismantle the majority through efforts to infiltrate the lists of the Change and Reform bloc with a deputy in Jbeil called Nazem al-Khoury, a deputy in Kesrouan called Mansour al-Bon, a deputy in Metn called Michel al-Murr, a deputy in Baabda called Edmond Gharios and a deputy in Beirut called Nayla Tueni....I had hoped to see these five deputies joining us on the path for change and reform and not supporting a political group opposing us, for this group’s history is known just like everyone knows where it worked in politics, to whom it succumbed and where it got its support and money to buy new positions."

This intensified and more direct battle between President Sleiman and General Aoun is a good insight into how the post-election field might look like (ignoring Nayla Tueni who is a March 14 "independent" as opposed to a Sleiman "indepednet").While, al-Khoury is a former advisor to the President and formed his Jbeil Independent Decision list. March 14 are very much part of these independents, especially in the Metn, Baabda and Kesrouan. Thus, Aoun referring to the groups history. However, this is complicated by the uncomfortable relationship March 14 have with Sleiman, due to what March 14 perceive to be a lack of protection in last years May 7 th events and most importantly Sleiman being seen as a Syrian appointee. However, with Sleiman gaining his own political backing and March 14 are grudgingly wanting to put the best possible opposition to what looks like a electorally strong March 8, March 14 are accomodating Sleiman's indpendents.

Aoun is not so comfortable with Sleiman taking any of his support. Therefore, the electoral battle that is shaping up between Aoun and Sleiman is going to add yet another interesting dynamic to this election and the post-election landscape of Lebanon.

The Election battles begin

"Election 'Battle' Launched ~ All 'Weapons' Authorized!" proclaimed al-Manar in a provocative title for an article that declared that the political scene in Lebanon has began the race for the June 7th election. February appears to be the month when the electoral machines will be fully launched but this week has already seen the verbal onslaughts begin.

A central dispute that has arisen is the formation of a neutral bloc by President Suleiman.

Michel Aoun made his position towards was the neutral bloc crystal clear in a press conference: “The neutral bloc is a nickname for March 14,and those who consider themselves within this category should have [taken this position] ten months ago,” he told reporters.

Boutrous Harb , according to NOW Lebanon,responded to Aoun's position regarding the independent bloc by stating that "... the Free Patriotic Movement leader [Michel Aoun] feared that such a bloc would reduce his party’s seats in parliament".