EU Perliminary Statement

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Hezbollah winners or losers?

The debate is continuing as to whether Hezbollah wanted to win this election or not. Paul Salem gives a very convincing argument that Hezbollah would not really benefit from winning. An argument he makes that I am very much a believer in is why get involved with the Lebanese state when they have a highly effective state of their own? Further to this, Salem makes the point why would they want to get involved in Aoun's desire for the Presidency? This is especially the case when Hezbollah and current President Sleiman have excellent relations.

Hezbollah may have benefited from increased legitimacy domestically and internationally if they had won the elections within the March 8 coalition. Other than this it is very unclear as to what Hezbollah would have benefited from if they had won these elections.

Maybe we will here it all from the man himself as he speaks at 8:30pm tonight.

The Results with Metn and Zahle to come

The results for Zahle and Metn are still to be confirmed. Zahle is expected to go 7-0 to March 14 from information thus far and in the Metn they are expected to win two seats resulting in 71 seats for March 14 and 57 seats for March 8. What a result for March 14!

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Election Day - upto 5:12pm Beirut Time

6am

The day began at 6am when I set off to Zahle. Going through Sassine in Beirut a heavy military presence was evident. There was a smooth flow of traffic on the way and on arriving at Zahle a military presence was notable at the entrance to the town but not heavily throughout the centre.

7:30am

In Zahle voters were beginning to trickle through to the polling stations. Support for the two political factions March 8 + FPM and March 14 was highly visible, with supporters handing out their pre-printed ballots to supporters. The town was calm and apart from the chaotic parking and traffic all appeared to be running smoothly. Supporters from both coalitions were both happy however, this was first thing in the morning! Taxis were a noticeable addition to the scenery in Zahle I saw a several Hello Taxis transporting to the party headquarters of Skaff voters who I assume have been brought from abroad to vote.

10:30 am

Made way back to Beirut, again traffic was running smoothly and apart from supporters doing the usual contest with flags and political hand signals (maybe a will provide a guide to these one day!) all was calm.

11:30 am

Went over to the Dahiya to see what is happening in this part of town. All is calm and well organized. On the way going through the old airport road was nice to see Amal and Future supporters mingling (more or less).

12:30pm

Went to Beirut One, Sodeco, and saw that at lot of movement was occurring at Beydoun street. There I witnessed lots of army trying to control a situation between Nadim Gemayel supporters and FPM. Nadim Gemayel's sister (who I do not know the name of so someone please inform me if you know) trying to assist her brother's supporters but was being kept away. Then a man was forcefully removed, without too much resistance, by two army personnel that was cheered by FPM supporters. Another man was also arrested but was unable to see clearly what went on. The army quickly maintained calm and even allowed voters to continue voting while trying to establish full security.

Away from my personal experience

Interior Minister Baroud announced that by 3pm voter turnout was at 40% compared to 2005 where voter turnout was 45% in total and confirmed that significant security incidents have not occurred and traffic did not prove to be an issue.

At 5:12pm so far so good.

The Curious Case of the Independents

What is an independent in this election?? Is it someone aligned with the President? Not according to Aoun as we have seen with the Jbeil Independent list, led by former advisor to the President Nazam Khoury, that has merged into the March 14 list. Michel Murr in the Metn who is on the Kataeb March 14 list. This allegiance with 'independents' has dropped President Sleiman into hot water, especially in Jbeil. Sleiman Franjieh has also come out forcefully against the President stating that he is making daily visits to his hometown of Amchit in Jbeil encouraging support for Khoury, now of course on the March 14 list.

Tripoli is a unique district for 'independents' that are independent from both the President and the two coalitions March 8 (plus FPM) and March 14. Najib Mikati, on March 14 affiliated list, and Omar Karami, on the March 8 list, are both big political figures in their own right and powerful enough to manoeuvre independently of the five big men that make up March 14 and March 8. Mikati is expected to be the next Prime Minister.

The Prediction Wallchart

Walking the streets of Beirut the other day I bumped into a choir boy who told me about the latest project he had been working on. "Every World Cup, to compensate for our repeated non-qualification, the Welsh have a tradition of predicting the results, which we colour in on a wallchart supplied by newspapers, so I decided to make a similar wallchart especially for the elections," he said. Enjoy!!

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The key battles: Saida

One of the most interesting electoral battle occurring outside the Christian areas is in Saida. The city of Saida is fascinating because although it is majority Sunna the dominant Sunni political organization, the Future Movement, does not have political dominance over the city, as yet.

For all the talk of a war between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon, this Sunni dominated city (84% of registered voters) currently has an incumbent MP Ossama Saad who is pro-Hezbollah and affiliated with the opposition coalition of March 8. Thus, Saida may illustrate the true nature of Lebanese politics which is less directly concerned with confession but more to do with networks of patronage and family connections/history in a given area that then becomes intertwined with confession. Saida also represents a district where a class struggle becomes more directly involved in the electoral process. With Ossama Saad making himself out to be a man of the people and emphasising direct contact with the people, while the Future Movement candidates Bahia Hariri and Siniora by their prominent political national roles obviously cannot offer this.

Ossama Saad, who inherited his parlimentary seat from his brother who died in 2002, has never faced an election before, as in 2005 the two Sunni seats were allocated to Saad and Bahia Hariri in an agreement. A lot has changed in Lebanon since the last proper election in Saida in 2000 and Future, along with many anaylsts, expect to win both Sunni seats in Saida. However, Ossama Saad does have significant support in Saida especially among the trade unions and it will be a tightly run contest. Saad is not at all pleased that Fouad Siniora is challenging his seat in this election and has made clear that he will not make it an easy contest. The possibility of violence in this district has been raised by analysts.

Saida in detail

Currently, the candidates running in this district are:

Future Movement (March 14)
Bahia Hariri, the sister of assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri
Fouad Siniora, the current Prime Minister and former confidant of Rafik Hariri

The Popular Nasserite Organisation (PNO) (March 8 affiliated)

Ossama Saad, brother of deceased former MP Mostapha Saad and son of PNO founder Maarouf Saad who was assassinated at the beginning of the civil war.


The voters in Saida are split between the Future Movement, the Popular Nasserite Organization (PNO) and Jamaa Islamiya. Saida was previously part of a larger district but now has its own district with two Sunni seats agreed at Doha. The historical particularities of Saida have meant the political landscape has been divided between the political and family heirs of assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri (Future Movement) and Mostapha Saad (PNO) (both pictured left).

Future have been involved in intense negotiations with Jaama Islamiya, with reports stating that the Prime Ministers office was used for the negotiations that could lead to complaints to the Constitutional Council post-election. The result of these negoitations was a seat in Beirut District IIIwas given to the Jaama Islamiya by Future to ensure that Jaama tell their supporters in Saida to vote for Future. The giving away of one seat in Beirut III by Future Movement to Jaama Islamiya can be seen as the Movement ensuring that those in the Sunni community sympathetic to Hezbollah and March 8 are marginalized, while other opponents are given more room often at the expense of their own supporters. This has also occured in Tripoli and has been quite a painful process for the Future Movement.

Mostapha Saad (pictured on the right) has made clear his anger that Future has decided to field two candidates for this district and not, as has been traditionally done, leave one seat empty. A media storm was whipped up when Siniora announced his candidacy and Ossama Saad has ensured the pressure continues. Saad has warned of a fierce conflict during and after the elections.

While, the risk of violence is present in this district the voters of Saida will for the first time have a chance to express what kind of identity the city will have. Will it be a Future Movement city that would confirm the party as the representatives of the Sunnis in the South and position the city as a March 14 heartland? Or will the voters of Saida maintain the city as neutral with a candidate Saad who is sympathetic to Hezbollah and affiliated with March 8 balanced by Bahia Hariri?

The clear and present dangers

Some are still predicting that these elections will be violent because after all, as I have been told, "this is Lebanon."

The clear and present dangers to these elections are currently:

1. The Israeli maneuvers that will take place on 31st May-4th June - Hezbollah in particular are warning that these maneuvers mean "that the Zionist entity [is] getting ready for war."

2. The continued uncovering of Israeli spy networks - The uncovering of these networks is increasing the tension in Lebanon especially because some of the networks have been linked to political parties in Lebanon, such as the spy Ziad Humsi to the Future Movement. So far 30 Israeli spies have been arrested the latest being an army colonel. Lebanon has officially complained to the UN about these spy networks.

3. Political rhetoric - Although there have not been too many fiery speeches, as the election draws closer politicians may try to galvanize support by upping the political rhetoric. Thus, far the only highly controversial speech has been the Nasrallah comment that May 7 "was a glorious day" that created anger and disbelief, even among those that are pro-the resistance.

4. Clan violence/political violence related to the elections - In the Bekka the first 'election related' death has occurred with a clash at a Future Movement office the cause of the clash is not known. It is likely that these kind of clashes are tied up in the local family disputes that is manifested also into political affiliation. However, the risk of family feuds developing into election related ones is a danger.

Will calm reign?

The Der Speigel report - This report illustrated the calm political climate at the moment. This explosive report stated that it had received information that Hezbollah was responsible for assassinating of PM Rafik Hariri . If this story occurred last year would there have been such a calm and calculated reaction by the two coalitions? A match was struck but has been promptly blown out by all sides. Hopefully this is a sign that these elections will pass without too much trouble.

Women and the elections

2

Aoun's FPM have caused quite a stir with this poster calling you to, "be beautiful and vote". So much so that they felt the need to write an article defending the campaign (in Arabic). The Feminist Collective stated 12 reasons as to why they found this billboard offensive, while Menassat wrote a story with the title "Be Beautiful and Vote" or "Be Intelligent and Vote Blank?" And +961 posted a great blog on the billboard war that this poster has sparked and the general contest that billboards have sparked.

This debate must lead to an actual discussion of women and the elections.

Of the 12 female candidates for this election only three are likely to be elected and all are attached to powerful families and/or male figures: Nayla Tunei, Bahia Hariri and Stridea Geagea. This will mean that the number of women in the Lebanese Parliament is likely to stay the same at three. IRIN articulated how bad this situation is by stating that this number was, " far fewer than politically restricted neighbors such as Syria, which had 30 women MPs out of 250; Jordan which had 13 out of 165; and Egypt which had 31 out of 718."

A quota for women?

Aoun has been criticized by the fact that the FPM are not fielding any female candidates. Aoun responded by stating that he had asked three women to run "but they apologized saying they were not ready.” Aoun went on to defend his record with regard to women's rights stating that he supported the draft law wanting to establish a quota for women in Parliament and that “women should have 50% of the parliamentary seats, not 10 or 20%.”

In an interview with Now Lebanon Nayla Tueni stated she was against a quota. "I’m not with the quota for women because it’s like you’re putting limits for women. It’s not ideal to say, for example, “You only have 15 seats for women.” I’d like to see a much bigger number of women in parliament, and there should be.

The debate as to whether a quota should be established or not for women certainly needs a to be continued and focused on a lot more. While, Lebanon may have a better situation for women in the job market the parliamentary representation of the expected 3 out of 128 is abysmal; women do after all make up 52% of the population.

The 12 female candidates for this elections are:

Ghada al-Dandashi Sunni, Tripoli
Hoda Sankari Sunni, Tripoli
Regine Kantara Maronite, Tripoli

Sethrida Geagea Maronite, March 14, Bcharre

Ibtisam Saadi Sunni, Baalbek-Hermel

Magda Bridi Catholic, Zahli

Norma Ferzli, Greek Orthodox, West Bekka-Rashaya

Therese Rizk Allah Maronite, Baabda

Gilberte Zouwien Maronite, FPM, Kesrwan

Nayla Tueni, Greek Orthodox, March 14 affiliated, Beriut 1

Ghenwa Jalloul, Sunni, Beirut 3

Bahia Hariri, Sunni, March 14, Saida



UPDATE: This billboard appears to be getting more and more popular as the English paper The Times included the billboard in its picture of the day.

Party Slogans - FPM

The election slogans from General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement:

This poster says, "No future without change". The poster that is ripped is imitating the Future Movements campaign poster.

Translation "So all of your votes can either be right right or wrong wrong". This is playing on the fact that the FPM slogan is a tick.

Party Slogans - Amal

Election campaign poster for Nahbi Berri's Amal party:

Translates as "perseverance". This campaign has similar posters with the main word being "Development", "Democracy", "Hope" with different pictures with each slogan.

Armenians and the elections - Part 2

This weekend Tashnak released their electoral list. The candidates are:

George Qassargi to run for the Armenian seat in Zahle, Hagop Bakradonian to run in the Northern Metn, Artur Nazarian for the Armenian Orthodox seat in Beirut’s second district, and Gregore Kalost for the Catholic Armenian and Freij Sabonjain for the Orthodox Armenian seats in Beirut’s first electoral district.

Agop Bakradonian is the only formal member of the Tashnak party who will be running in the Beirut II district (there are two Armenian seats). In this district it has already been agreed that the two Armenian candidates will be split with one going to March 8 and one to March 14.

Importantly there was no mention as to the lists that the candidates would run on. However, it is expected that these candidates will run on a Tashnak list that would leave the door open to both Aoun and Murr.

EU Observers

Interior Minister Ziad Baroud signed on Wednesday a memorandum of understanding with the European Union Ambassador to Lebanon Patrick Laurent that included provisions for a donation of four million Euros to assist Lebanon’s electoral process.

Laurent said that the coming 2009 parliamentary elections would be an opportunity for the Lebanese people to renew their democracy and political life, adding that the electoral law, ratified in September 2008, was a basic first step that respected international standards for organizing free, fair and transparent elections.

Further to this, The Vice-President of the European Parliament, Mrs. Rodi Kratsa (pictured) visited Lebanon, as head of a Delegation of Members of the European People’s Party-European Democrats (EPP-ED). During her visit, the Vice-President and the other members of the Delegation held meetings with the President of Lebanon, H.E. General Michel Sleiman and the Prime Minister, Mr. Fouad Siniora.

Mrs. Kratsa stated in reference to the possibility of sending EU Observers to Lebanon: “It is my belief that this action will strengthen mutual understanding, cooperation and trust between the EU and Lebanon . I, myself, had participated in the electoral observers’ mission of the 2005 elections. I believe that the upcoming elections will be held in a democratic manner and will allow Lebanon to have a strong Government, able to make brave decisions for the modernization of the country and for its development."

Lebanese Forces Preparing Conference to Announce Candidates for the Election

MP Strida Geagea said the Lebanese Forces are preparing for a conference soon to announce the names of the party candidates in Lebanon adding that the current 5 candidates are Elie Keyrouz and her in Bsharri, Farid Habib in Koura, Antoine Zahra in Batroun, and George Adwan in Shouf”.

Disabled being able to vote

Lebanon: Ensuring Participation of the Disabled in Elections

The inability of Lebanese citizens who are physically disabled to vote independently was poignantly captured by the Lebanese Handicapped Union (LPHU) during the 2005 elections. Danny Abou Haidar, a voter and physically disabled, is recorded on video being carried up two flights of stairs on his wheelchair by two men. The complete dependence of Mr Haidar on the two men carrying him up the stairs could not be clearer. Sylvana Lakkis, Chair Person of the LPHU, stated, “If you cannot vote in an independent way your voice cannot really be heard. In the past people who wanted to vote would have to be taken by someone to the polling station and this person could influence the vote just by the assistance they are giving. So we said this situation must change”. The LPHU in their demand for change has achieved two important steps: a new draft decree that recognizes the physically disabled right to full participation in elections and a nationwide survey the Polling Locations and Accessibility Study.

The video of Mr Haidar was part of a comprehensive campaign called “My Rights” organized by LPHU and the Youth Association for the Blind (YAB) and started in 2005. The aim of this campaign was to promote the political and social rights of people with disabilities in Lebanon. The campaign targeted public and private institutions through prominent media campaigns, while also informed people with physical disabilities that they have the “right to vote in dignity and independently”. Four years later and another election year, the “My Rights” campaign has continued its progress. On the 20th January 2009, a new draft decree was issued by the Minister of Interior Ziad Baroud stating that: the government should ensure the full participation of persons with disabilities in the electoral process. This draft decree is the first attempt by the government to safeguard the opportunity of people with disabilities to vote. Interior Minister Baroud stated that, “Lebanon has a lot to do before the accessibility of polling stations reaches international standards and I realize that access is not the only issue when it comes to the disabled being able to vote but this decree is an important first step.”

The most important part however is not the decree itself but the Polling Locations and Accessibility Study, accompanying the decree. This project will assess the accessibility of all the 1,779 possible locations for polling stations in the upcoming 2009 elections. For the first time Lebanon will find out what the state of accessibility is like at polling stations across the nation. The immediate results of this survey will be to ensure that there is at least one polling station in each district of Lebanon that is accessible for the physically disabled. Hussam Hassan, of Arabia GIS, the company responsible for the accessibility assessment stated that in all the 1,779 possible polling locations, “a full survey is being carried out, with pictures taken of the various accessibility hazards and GPS [Global Positioning System] coordinates sent”. Through a team of roughly 30 people, of which half is made up of volunteers from LPHU, the survey, photos and GPS coordinates will be sent back to the Arabia GIS headquarters in Beirut and then compiled into a interactive map. At the end of April this interactive map will be made accessible on the LPHU website so that anyone will be able to look up where their nearest accessible polling station is located and the facilities available with regard to accessibility. LPHU after the survey is completed will discuss with the Interior Ministry the best way forward in improving the accessibility of polling stations across the country. “Part of the new decree also reviews the definitions and the criteria of an accessible polling station,” Lakkis said, “and this will mean for the 2010 municipality election when polling stations are chosen they must apply to this new criteria.”

However, the number of polling stations that will be accessible for the 2009 election looks to be extremely low and was outlined in the pilot accessibility project. The pilot report concluded that of the 70 buildings in Beirut only two are, “well equipped to receive people with disability during the elections, without any intervention,” and another seven where intervention is possible before the voting process begins. “We have a long way to go, the whole of Lebanon is inaccessible for us,” Lakkis said, “but as the polling stations are usually always in schools we are trying to ensure that the government allocates a budget line to ensure that in the future all schools are accessible as this will ensure our three main rights: education, political participation and also access to emergency shelters, as schools are often used as places where people go in emergencies.”

How many people will benefit from greater accessibility is a subject of constant debate because the number of disabled people in Lebanon is unknown. Throughout the whole of the MENA region accurate statistics remain elusive primarily due to: a lack of accurate census data, no single agreed upon definition and shame regarding disability. For Lebanon the most quoted figure is from a UNDP survey from 1990 that recorded that 10% of the Lebanese population is disabled. This figure would mean that Lebanon has an average number of disabled people in the MENA region but it must be noted that this figure is contested and outdated. The only truly accurate figure that exists is 70,000 and this figure represents the number of disability cards issued by the Ministry of Interior. “However, many people don’t know where to register for the cards and we know there are many more disabled especially with the war in 2006 and the large number of serious car accidents that happen on the roads of Lebanon,” Lakkis said.

While it will remain unknown how many physically disabled people there are in Lebanon; in April for the first time what will be known is where, throughout the country, it is possible for the physically disabled to access polling stations and what is needed to be done to improve access to these polling stations. Further to this, the government for the first time ever, in the form of the draft decree, has acknowledged that it has a responsibility towards the physically disabled in fulfilling their right to vote. Lakkis stated that, “the draft decree and the accessibility review that will go online in April have already gone a long way in improving the participation of the physically disabled in Lebanese society. Both of these will allow many more people to have their rightful say in the 2009 elections and the many to come.”