Electoral Reform Lebanon

Democracy Rankings

2010-01-08T15:51:00.003+02:00

A global democracy ranking system has been completed and puts Lebanon 79 out of 97. That is below Venezuela (77) and Kuwait (76). I am not a huge fan of league tables but it does give you some perspective...for the full table click here.

Electoral Reform Lebanon

2009-11-02T11:21:00.005+02:00

I have just finished a piece for the think tank the Foreign Policy Centre on electoral reform in Lebanon. The piece focused on why there was such a misunderstanding of the Lebanese elections by the Western media and on the desire for electoral reform in Lebanon.

Electoral Reform in Lebanon

In June 2009 Lebanon held its first 'free' election since 1972. On the conclusion of the elections Western media and political analysts were particularly guilty of premature celebrations and hyperbole, regarding the Western backed March 14 coalition election victory. These past elections were not a battle in which: "President Barack Obama defeated President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran"(1) or Western ideals of liberal democracy triumphed against Islamic totalitarianism. This confusion was immediately evident after the winning March 14 coalition soon began to fracture and Lebanon fell into all too familiar political paralysis. The reason for this misplaced euphoria by Western pundits was due to an essential misunderstanding about the battle being fought on the Lebanese political playing field. These elections were largely void of political ideology and were centered on the fight to represent certain sectarian groups, especially so for the Christian population, and the protection of patrimonial networks. Consociational politics have been deliberately established in Lebanon to ensure the protection of minority groups and ensure power sharing. But the politics of sect are not seen as sufficient by the Lebanese and there is a strong desire among civil society actors to change this consociational politics. One method being pushed, in this battle of "bad governance against good," is electoral reform. Reformers are trying to ensure that in the creation of a new election law for the 2013 elections two mechanisms are introduced: Proportional Representation (PR) and the creation of a Senate.

TO CARRY ON READING: http://fpc.org.uk/articles/457

Appeals to the Constitutional Council

2009-07-09T11:48:00.005+03:00

The election results were accepted by all sides but suddenly the losers in this election, and in some cases even the winners (indirectly), have decided to challenge the results. A barrage of electoral disputes have been delivered to the Constitutional Council hours before the deadline by both sides. An-Nahar has published the full list of those candidates that have complained to the Council:

Candidate Rachid ad Daher against MP Hadi Hobeich

Candidate Nicola Sahnaoui against MP Michel Pharaon

Candidate Eddie Abi al Lamaa against MP Salim Salhab

Candidate Emile Kanaan against MP Ibrahim Kanaan

Candidate Elie Karameh against MP Edgar Maalouf

Candidate Elias Moukhayber against MP Ghassan Moukhayber

Candidate Sarkis Sarkis against MP Nabil Nikola

Candidate Kamil Maalouf against MP Joseph Maalouf

Candidate Rami Oleik against MP Abbas Hachem

Minister Elias Skaf against MP Nicola Fatouch

Former MP Salim Aoun against MP Elie Marouni

Former MP Hassan Yaakoub against MP Okab Sakr

Candidate Rida al Mays against MP Issam Araji

Ambassador Fouad al Turk against MP Toni abou Khater

Candidate Adnan Arakji against MP Nouhad Machnouk

Candidate Ajaj Haddad against MP Issam Sawaya

Former MP Mikhail ad Daher against MP Hadi Hobeich

Candidate Ghassan Rahbani against MP Michel El Mur

Candidate Ghassan al Achkar against MP Sami Gemayel

Electoral Reform and Proportional Representation

2009-06-19T18:42:00.013+03:00

The most popular politician in the country, if not the region and if Obama was not around who knows... Ziad Baroud has put his full weight behind Proportional Representation (PR).

It is clear that the current electoral system is not politically viable and a entirely new system will have to be adopted. The Boutros Commission proposed a semi-PR system and although rejected for the 09 election will be taken up again and debated for the 2013 election and a form of PR is expected to be used in the 2010 election (for a guide on different electoral systems).

So to PR:

"The principal of PR is that the seats in a constituency are divided according to the number of votes for party lists, but there are considerable variations in how this is implemented," Pippa Norris the election supremo summed up the PR electoral system.

So why are those interested in electoral reform in Lebanon going all starry eyed for PR, as opposed to the current first past the post (AKA plurality)?

Plurality emphasizes governability while PR focuses on the inclusion of the minority voice.

John Stuart Mill has outlined clearly, very shortly after the PR system was proposed, a wonderful defense of its virtues:

"When the individuals composing the majority would no longer be reduced to Hobson's choice, of either voting for the person brought forward by their local leaders, or not voting at all; when the nominees of the leaders would have to encounter the competition not solely of the candidate of the minority, but of all the men of established reputation in the country who were willing to serve; it would be impossible any longer to foist upon the electors the first person who presents himself with the catchwords of the party in his mouth, and three or four thousand pounds in his pocket. The majority would insist on having a candidate worthy of their choice, or they would carry their votes somewhere else."

Was the PR system made for Lebanon I hear...

Positives and negatives of PR in Lebanon:

1. Easing political polarization - PR could allow for independents to come through. For instance if Mouth Lebanon was one district and there were 10 seats if Lebanese Forces and Kataeb got 200,000 votes, Change and Reform 300,000 votes and then lets say Lahoud's Democratic Renewal 100,000 and the newly created "we are going in the center of everything you say party" 100,000 votes and "We are extreme" 100,000. Change and Reform would not win all ten seats as in the plurality system but would receive 3 of the seats, LF 2 and so on (this of course also depends on the type of PR system used). Thus, the system would give representation for all those voters whose votes would have otherwise been 'lost' if it was a first past the post. It would have been easier for a Presidential bloc to have emerged as it would have allowed all 'independents' to run without having to go under a March 8/March 14 list.

2. Creation of national parties but increased sectarianism - If the above system described in Mount Lebanon was done across the nation parties would become a lot more national and not just have political representation, as is the case now, where their supporters are the outright majority. However, becuase political parties in Lebanon are based on confession this would mean that no longer would you vote for a Shia candidate if you were Christian and vise versa. The likely scenario for Lebanon would be the further entrenching of sectarianism with Christians only voting for Christian parties and Sunni for Sunni.... You would not longer get Muslims voting in Christian representatives that has been a major complaint of the Christian community.

3. Rise of extremist parties - While the advantages are that more parties can express their political views and the a fuller plurality of opinion this also comes with the disadvantage that those with more extremist views are not pushed to the center by the main parties. The "We are extreme" party no longer has to make deals with mainstream parties and can now go it alone.

4. Unstable coalitions - As stated at the start PR emphasizes the inclusion of the minority voice where as plurality focuses on governability. Thus, PR could have the potential to weaken an already fragile governmental structure. It is not clear that PR is the best system for inceasing the capacity and strength of the state. You just have to look at Italy and Israel to see how unstable coalitions can be ruinous to the creation of stable governments. Unlikely coalitions are nothing new in Lebanon but having many of these coalitions based on my enemy's enemy.... could be potentially devastating.

A web of complexity awaits the debate about PR that has more forms than Lebanon has cedars...So let the debate begin

Carter Observation Mission

2009-06-17T14:51:00.002+03:00

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Paying for votes

2009-06-16T15:03:00.005+03:00

The Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) launched its perliminary findings for its finance investigation. Vote buying occurred, according to the LTA, widely in Zahle, Saida, Zghorta, Metn, Batroun and West Bekka. How much was paid for a Vote varied: Saida the price was $60-100; $800 in Zahle and up to $3,000 in Zghorta. The LTA also noted that a large amount of financial abuses were done before the campaign monitoring period began. A full report will be published at the end of the summer.

Dispelling Lebanon Election Myths

2009-06-11T19:55:00.010+03:00

Previously, I had a go at Noe and Young for contradictions in their analysis. Yet, their contributions in allowing people to understand the Lebanese political context and the elections are important, especially having read the some of the international commentary that is fundamentally wrong. These international commentators have created three central myths around the elections that are deconstructed one by one below. If only international commentators that came to Lebanon for the elections, or not at all, would read more Noe or Young!

1. A solid majority of Lebanese Christians voted against the list of Michel Aoun (as stated by Friedman in his candy floss covered article)

The FPM itself has 10 MPs, which is the same as the LF and Kataeb combined so the FPM is still the largest Christian party. While, the Change and Reform bloc consists of 27 MPs only beaten by the March 14 bloc itself. A solid majority of Christians did not vote against Aoun.

2. A solid majority of all Lebanese — Muslims, Christians and Druse — voted for the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri (again Friedman)

The popular vote went 800,000 for March 8 (and FPM) and 700,000 for March 14. A solid majority of all Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 coalition. This was still a confessional electoral system and the vote was split along confessional lines, except in the Christian areas, thus "all Lebanese" did not vote for March 14.

3.Obama's speech won the elections for March 14 and that the visits by Biden and Clinton persuaded Christian voters to vote for March 14 (Simon Tisdall of the Guardian and many other international commentators)

While, of course this is not very tangible and is a simple matter of opinion I challenge this comment on the basis of where the elections were won:

Zahle that went 7-0 to March 14 a result even the most ardent March 14 supporters were not expecting. The primary reason for this win is the 70% turnout of the Sunni population that occurred because of extensive persuasion by Saad Hariri. I have been told by someone working at the Kataeb offices on election day that Hariri made a call to coax Sunni voters to go out and vote, at around 3pm they came in bus loads. The idea that this exceptional Sunni turnout was becuase they were inspired by the Obama/Biden/Clinton (OBC) brigade to go out and vote in such force is highly suspect.

In Beirut One, the other vital district, it may be more believable that the OBC brigade had an some sort of effect. Personally, I feel it is much more likely that May 7th of last year when Hezbollah took over much of Beirut and the Aoun-Hezbollah agreement over 2006 cost the FPM the five seats in this district.

In both districts and nationally Patriarch Sfeir's last minute intervention on the side of March 14 is seen as having a significant effect in persuading Christian voters to go vote for March 14. But of course for most western commentators this does not fit into the secular-democratic-Obama-miracle that is March 14 against Iran narrative they are constructing.

--This article was edited after a comment corrected a sloppy sentence on the 12th June.

EU Perliminary Statement

2009-06-11T12:26:00.001+03:00

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The IFES Review

2009-06-11T11:07:00.000+03:00

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Updated/Modified Statement by NDI

2009-06-11T10:25:00.001+03:00

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The Analysts a bit confused

2009-06-10T18:28:00.004+03:00

Comparing what two analysts were saying before the elections and after you can read some beautiful contradictions:

Up first is the notorious Michael Young:

on April 9th:

Syria will win Lebanon's elections

"Whether it is the March 14 coalition and its allies that wins, or the March 8 coalition with the Aounists, the forthcoming Parliament will be much friendlier to Syria than the current one is, representing a marked return of Damascus' hegemony over Lebanon," Young argued.

Now June 9th:

Lebanon's elections: an early inquest

"Most significantly, the election results were a setback for Syria." Young claimed.

Over to Nicholas Noe:

On May 6th Noe wrote an article entitled: The end of Lebanon's Cedar Revolution: The west must recognise that a Hezbollah victory in elections could force it into responsibility and disarmament.

In the article Noe stated "Top US officials are apparently content with focusing on the bigger picture of engaging Iran and Syria and leaving Lebanon to the rhetorical purview of staunch March 14 supporters like Jeffrey Feltman, the former ambassador to Lebanon, now assistant secretary of near east policy, who presided over March 14's spectacular rise and fall."

Now June 9th Noe declares:

The US must help Hariri: There are three fronts on which the US can help make the Cedar revolution into a genuine Lebanese revolution.

I must admit however, I was fully convinced that March 8 would win and March 14 was also dead. Unfortunately I do not have quite the platform to make a fool out of myself like Young and Noe!

The Election Results Brokendown

2009-06-10T10:07:00.003+03:00

You can get the full breakdown of the election by clicking here.

The interesting bits

The breakdown of the results show that in Beirut One March 14 clearly won by just under 3,000 votes for each candidate. Nayla Tueni received the most amount of votes with 19,985. The voter turnout of Beirut One was only 40% of registered voters which is very low for a district that had such a competitive race but it must be remembered many of these registered voters may not live in Lebanon anymore.

In Zahle Elias Skaff the major traditional political force in Zahle lost by some 4,000 votes, while interestingly Okab Saqr received the most votes in Zahle but is a Shia candidate where the number of Shia are not so numerous. In fact the reason for the March 14 win in Zahle is being put down to the high Sunni turnout in the district. A nice quirk but no more.

Michel Aoun only won his seat by by 2,000 voters in Kerserwan.

In total March 8 won the popular vote by 800,000 to 700,000 but the district system means seats are weighed differently, thus allowing a March 14 victory.

NDI Observer Mission Statement

2009-06-09T10:25:00.001+03:00

I will be publishing all the major observer mission reports on this blog. Here is the first one from the NDI.

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Hezbollah winners or losers?

2009-06-08T19:48:00.004+03:00

The debate is continuing as to whether Hezbollah wanted to win this election or not. Paul Salem gives a very convincing argument that Hezbollah would not really benefit from winning. An argument he makes that I am very much a believer in is why get involved with the Lebanese state when they have a highly effective state of their own? Further to this, Salem makes the point why would they want to get involved in Aoun's desire for the Presidency? This is especially the case when Hezbollah and current President Sleiman have excellent relations.

Hezbollah may have benefited from increased legitimacy domestically and internationally if they had won the elections within the March 8 coalition. Other than this it is very unclear as to what Hezbollah would have benefited from if they had won these elections.

Maybe we will here it all from the man himself as he speaks at 8:30pm tonight.

The Final Result

2009-06-08T17:54:00.006+03:00

The most important district of this election was Zahle; the winner of this election missed by all except supporters was the March 14 coalition. March 14 finished with 71 seats (with two independents) and March 8 finished with 58.

Zahle was expected to go to March 8 (and FPM) but instead it was announced that all seven seats went to March 14.

Overall in the Christian districts, where this election was really occurring, the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb and Christian "independents" of March 14 made vital gains in Beirut One, Zahle and Metn, while also maintaining their seats in Batroun.

The FPM although increasing the number of seats in their Change and Reform coalition to 27 from 21 were unable to gain enough to achieve an electoral win for the March 8 coalition.

Open publication - Free publishing - More results

The Results with Metn and Zahle to come

2009-06-08T12:00:00.004+03:00

The results for Zahle and Metn are still to be confirmed. Zahle is expected to go 7-0 to March 14 from information thus far and in the Metn they are expected to win two seats resulting in 71 seats for March 14 and 57 seats for March 8. What a result for March 14!

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March 14 win!! ? Unofficial

2009-06-07T23:56:00.005+03:00

It looks as March 14 have won the Lebanese parlimentary elections. Fireworks and horns from March 14 supporters are let off as exit polls reveal themselves. The blogger Qifa Nabki called it first in the world of Twitter as Zahle went March 14 7-0, in the West Bekka 6-0 and Koura 3-0 all upsets for March 8. Reuters qoute a unnamed Hezbollah offical stating "We've lost the election," the source, who declined to be named, told Reuters. "We accept the result as the will of the people."

Election Day @ 7pm Polls Closed

2009-06-07T19:02:00.003+03:00

The Polls have closed and without significant incident, although there has been a lot of moaning about long queues at the polling station. Come on!! So all in all at the close of play for the voting process well done Lebanon!

Michel Ghanem on LBC has announced that 32 seats have been guaranteed for the opposition March 8 + FPM and 26 for March 14.

Now let the all important stage of the results begin!

Election Day - upto 5:12pm Beirut Time

2009-06-07T16:27:00.010+03:00

6am

The day began at 6am when I set off to Zahle. Going through Sassine in Beirut a heavy military presence was evident. There was a smooth flow of traffic on the way and on arriving at Zahle a military presence was notable at the entrance to the town but not heavily throughout the centre.

7:30am

In Zahle voters were beginning to trickle through to the polling stations. Support for the two political factions March 8 + FPM and March 14 was highly visible, with supporters handing out their pre-printed ballots to supporters. The town was calm and apart from the chaotic parking and traffic all appeared to be running smoothly. Supporters from both coalitions were both happy however, this was first thing in the morning! Taxis were a noticeable addition to the scenery in Zahle I saw a several Hello Taxis transporting to the party headquarters of Skaff voters who I assume have been brought from abroad to vote.

10:30 am

Made way back to Beirut, again traffic was running smoothly and apart from supporters doing the usual contest with flags and political hand signals (maybe a will provide a guide to these one day!) all was calm.

11:30 am

Went over to the Dahiya to see what is happening in this part of town. All is calm and well organized. On the way going through the old airport road was nice to see Amal and Future supporters mingling (more or less).

12:30pm

Went to Beirut One, Sodeco, and saw that at lot of movement was occurring at Beydoun street. There I witnessed lots of army trying to control a situation between Nadim Gemayel supporters and FPM. Nadim Gemayel's sister (who I do not know the name of so someone please inform me if you know) trying to assist her brother's supporters but was being kept away. Then a man was forcefully removed, without too much resistance, by two army personnel that was cheered by FPM supporters. Another man was also arrested but was unable to see clearly what went on. The army quickly maintained calm and even allowed voters to continue voting while trying to establish full security.

Away from my personal experience

Interior Minister Baroud announced that by 3pm voter turnout was at 40% compared to 2005 where voter turnout was 45% in total and confirmed that significant security incidents have not occurred and traffic did not prove to be an issue.

At 5:12pm so far so good.

IFES Carnegie Final Election Brief

2009-06-05T18:03:00.006+03:00

IFES and Carnegie gave a final briefing to journalists for the election on Sunday. Following the last joint briefing by IFES and Carnegie in April.

Richard Chambers, Party Head of IFES in Lebanon, stated that there is an electoral competition in almost all districts. March 8 and March 14 have presented candidate lists almost throughout the country and this has been added to by independent lists in some districts. Thus, these elections are the competitive in a while.

Paul Salem, of Carnegie, stated that these are the first proper free elections since 1972 and outlined three posts-election scenarios:

1. Hung parliament what Salem sees as most likely. "This is where each camp holds large minorities and a group of independents, close to the President, holding the balance of votes," Salem said. Outside powers of Saudi, US and Syria are directly and indirectly trying to push for this occurrence Salem stated. Interestingly, Salem claims that Syria does not want an all out March 8th victory because Aoun has a difficult relationship with Syria and Hezbollah is closer to Iran. So for Syria the best result is a hung parliament and Syria successfully sold this idea to the US and Saudi as the best option, according to Salem.

2. March 14 win. March 14 have stated that they will refuse to grant veto power to March 8 but Salem warns this could lead to violence and should instead get clear commitments from March 8 to move forward on key political and economic issues.

3. March 8 win. Salem states that this could lead to a situation where there is a collapse in support for Lebanon from the international community and the Gulf states. This could lead to "a collapse in confidence in Lebanon and a precipitous decline into economic and social unrest."

The Curious Case of the Independents

2009-06-05T14:05:00.003+03:00

What is an independent in this election?? Is it someone aligned with the President? Not according to Aoun as we have seen with the Jbeil Independent list, led by former advisor to the President Nazam Khoury, that has merged into the March 14 list. Michel Murr in the Metn who is on the Kataeb March 14 list. This allegiance with 'independents' has dropped President Sleiman into hot water, especially in Jbeil. Sleiman Franjieh has also come out forcefully against the President stating that he is making daily visits to his hometown of Amchit in Jbeil encouraging support for Khoury, now of course on the March 14 list.

Tripoli is a unique district for 'independents' that are independent from both the President and the two coalitions March 8 (plus FPM) and March 14. Najib Mikati, on March 14 affiliated list, and Omar Karami, on the March 8 list, are both big political figures in their own right and powerful enough to manoeuvre independently of the five big men that make up March 14 and March 8. Mikati is expected to be the next Prime Minister.

What elections?

2009-06-05T09:39:00.004+03:00

These elections don't really matter because the fundamental conflicts that brought Lebanon to a standstill since 2004 have not been addressed, according to The International Crisis Group (ICG). In fact the ICG argues that these elections because of the electoral law and the agreements made at Doha will make the likelihood of any proper national reconciliation less likely not more. "The elections will further entrench existing political elites, the system of which they are prime beneficiaries and the structural paralysis it produces."

The ICG has just issued a report on the elections: Lebanon's Elections: Avoiding a new cycle of confrontation.

Recommendations made by the report:

To Lebanese Parties:

1. Recognize and accept the election results, while avoiding rhetorical incitement.

2. Reiterate support for the broad principle of power-sharing.

3. Relaunch, as soon as possible and under the president’s guidance, the national dialogue on strengthening Lebanon’s sovereignty, which was initiated by the Doha agreement but de facto suspended as elections neared.

4. Task a parliamentary commission, upon formation of a new government, with immediately drafting an electoral law that includes reforms set aside in the context of the Doha agreement, in particular:

(a) bolstering the independence and mandate of the Electoral Supervision Committee; and

(b) defining clear and practical rules governing campaign funding and propaganda.

5. Task a parliamentary commission, upon formation of a new government, with immediately drafting a law on the Constitutional Council, in particular granting the court the power to interpret the Constitution.

To both sides’ foreign allies (notably the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and Iran) and actively involved third parties (such as France, Turkey and Qatar):

6. Accept and recognise the election results.

7. Avoid exacerbating divisions by, notably, encouraging a power-sharing arrangement.

8. Deal with the future government on the basis of its actual behaviour (in particular whether it respects international obligations), rather than its specific composition.

9. Engage in a mediation effort or, if needed, support one undertaken by others.

10. Take steps to improve the political system by:

(a) backing civil society reform efforts toward systemic reform;

(b) insisting on strengthenig the Constitutional Council’s role; and

(c) denouncing, publicly and clearly, abusive electoral practices, such as vote-buying and the lack of standardised ballots.

A Rather Confused Observation

2009-06-04T19:04:00.003+03:00

As-Safir reporter Marlein Khalifeh reported on the bizarre press conference of the Francophone Delegation for Electoral Communication and Information. The press conference reportedly lasted less than half an hour as journalists were at a loss for questions as the panelists were apparently dazed and confused. Have no fear however, the fearless leader of this observation mission, or should I say Electoral Communication and Information delegation, Professor Albert Borgi stated: "Personally I've always criticized Observation missions and considered them as a mere electoral and pictorial joke most of the time." So instead of observing this mission is here to evaluate and bless the polls. For those that will do the thankless task of reading all the observation mission reports this report may be just what you have been waiting for!

Calm before the storm?

2009-06-04T15:03:00.007+03:00

Many people have commented on the fact there has been relative quite in Lebanon just days before the elections. The occasional security incidents, since January, that have occurred so far have been mainly in Tripoli, Jebail, Batroun, Zahle and Saida. These security incidents have gradually stopped as the elections have drawn nearer, much to everyones surprise.

The usual sensationalist recriminations in the media have also been tame in comparison to the rhetoric that usually gets bounced around the Lebanese arena. Many Lebanese I have talked to have warned that this is just the calm before the storm and are preparing for the weekend to be when it will happen. "This is Lebanon" is the mantra.

What ever the reasons for the calm I think Lebanon should be proud of the fact that before a major internal political event the environment is peaceful and relatively constructive. Of course everything can change in an instant but lets applaud the calm, thus far, while not being complacent of a possible storm on the election weekend.

Citizen Observers

2009-06-04T09:54:00.005+03:00

While there are many international observers that have come to monitor the elections in Lebanon, what about the 4 million Lebanese observers of this election? What is their opinion of what is happening on the ground? Well if Sharek961 gets of the ground we could soon find out.

Sharek961.org plans to utilize Lebanese citizens/observers across the country and have created a site that allows you to email (report@sharek961.org) , SMS (t0 7118 9118), Twitter (@sharek961) or place web reports on the site. The idea is that citizens share their election experience.

"Reports can address anything election-related happening around the country, from political rallies and polling queues to vote-buying and violence," the Sharek team stated in a press release.

It will be interesting to see what kind of feedback they get and Sharek961 have stated:

"Sharek961 does not attempt to verify reports and makes no claims as to their accuracy; as a neutral platform it publishes all material reports without editorial or censorship."

It will be interesting to see what kind of feedback occurs in such a free for all environment! Will we get the first bit of breaking news regarding electoral news from a citizen reporting to Shark961? Or will it just act as a platform for political slander? The choice really is up to the Lebanese.

The site was created by five Lebanese volunteers that have funded the project themselves and have been supported by a variety of organizations. The idea was taken fromUshahidi, which means "testimony" in Swahili, a Kenyan crowd sourcing information site.

The Prediction Wallchart

2009-06-01T19:25:00.005+03:00

Walking the streets of Beirut the other day I bumped into a choir boy who told me about the latest project he had been working on. "Every World Cup, to compensate for our repeated non-qualification, the Welsh have a tradition of predicting the results, which we colour in on a wallchart supplied by newspapers, so I decided to make a similar wallchart especially for the elections," he said. Enjoy!!

Open publication - Free publishing - More predictions

The Ministry Guide to the Lebanese Elections

2009-06-01T19:24:00.000+03:00

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The Offical Polling and Counting Handbook

2009-06-01T15:47:00.001+03:00

Here is the polling and counting handbook that has been issued by the Ministry of Interior:

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The key battles: Saida

2009-05-31T13:32:00.019+03:00

One of the most interesting electoral battle occurring outside the Christian areas is in Saida. The city of Saida is fascinating because although it is majority Sunna the dominant Sunni political organization, the Future Movement, does not have political dominance over the city, as yet.

For all the talk of a war between Sunni and Shia in Lebanon, this Sunni dominated city (84% of registered voters) currently has an incumbent MP Ossama Saad who is pro-Hezbollah and affiliated with the opposition coalition of March 8. Thus, Saida may illustrate the true nature of Lebanese politics which is less directly concerned with confession but more to do with networks of patronage and family connections/history in a given area that then becomes intertwined with confession. Saida also represents a district where a class struggle becomes more directly involved in the electoral process. With Ossama Saad making himself out to be a man of the people and emphasising direct contact with the people, while the Future Movement candidates Bahia Hariri and Siniora by their prominent political national roles obviously cannot offer this.

Ossama Saad, who inherited his parlimentary seat from his brother who died in 2002, has never faced an election before, as in 2005 the two Sunni seats were allocated to Saad and Bahia Hariri in an agreement. A lot has changed in Lebanon since the last proper election in Saida in 2000 and Future, along with many anaylsts, expect to win both Sunni seats in Saida. However, Ossama Saad does have significant support in Saida especially among the trade unions and it will be a tightly run contest. Saad is not at all pleased that Fouad Siniora is challenging his seat in this election and has made clear that he will not make it an easy contest. The possibility of violence in this district has been raised by analysts.

Saida in detail

Currently, the candidates running in this district are:

Future Movement (March 14)
Bahia Hariri, the sister of assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri
Fouad Siniora, the current Prime Minister and former confidant of Rafik Hariri

The Popular Nasserite Organisation (PNO) (March 8 affiliated)

Ossama Saad, brother of deceased former MP Mostapha Saad and son of PNO founder Maarouf Saad who was assassinated at the beginning of the civil war.

The voters in Saida are split between the Future Movement, the Popular Nasserite Organization (PNO) and Jamaa Islamiya. Saida was previously part of a larger district but now has its own district with two Sunni seats agreed at Doha. The historical particularities of Saida have meant the political landscape has been divided between the political and family heirs of assassinated former PM Rafik Hariri (Future Movement) and Mostapha Saad (PNO) (both pictured left).

Future have been involved in intense negotiations with Jaama Islamiya, with reports stating that the Prime Ministers office was used for the negotiations that could lead to complaints to the Constitutional Council post-election. The result of these negoitations was a seat in Beirut District IIIwas given to the Jaama Islamiya by Future to ensure that Jaama tell their supporters in Saida to vote for Future. The giving away of one seat in Beirut III by Future Movement to Jaama Islamiya can be seen as the Movement ensuring that those in the Sunni community sympathetic to Hezbollah and March 8 are marginalized, while other opponents are given more room often at the expense of their own supporters. This has also occured in Tripoli and has been quite a painful process for the Future Movement.

Mostapha Saad (pictured on the right) has made clear his anger that Future has decided to field two candidates for this district and not, as has been traditionally done, leave one seat empty. A media storm was whipped up when Siniora announced his candidacy and Ossama Saad has ensured the pressure continues. Saad has warned of a fierce conflict during and after the elections.

While, the risk of violence is present in this district the voters of Saida will for the first time have a chance to express what kind of identity the city will have. Will it be a Future Movement city that would confirm the party as the representatives of the Sunnis in the South and position the city as a March 14 heartland? Or will the voters of Saida maintain the city as neutral with a candidate Saad who is sympathetic to Hezbollah and affiliated with March 8 balanced by Bahia Hariri?

The Constitutional Council

2009-05-28T13:41:00.006+03:00

The Constitutional Council has arrived! Here is your essential guide from IFES:

Open publication - Free publishing - More lebanon

The clear and present dangers

2009-05-28T13:10:00.001+03:00

Some are still predicting that these elections will be violent because after all, as I have been told, "this is Lebanon."

The clear and present dangers to these elections are currently:

1. The Israeli maneuvers that will take place on 31st May-4th June - Hezbollah in particular are warning that these maneuvers mean "that the Zionist entity [is] getting ready for war."

2. The continued uncovering of Israeli spy networks - The uncovering of these networks is increasing the tension in Lebanon especially because some of the networks have been linked to political parties in Lebanon, such as the spy Ziad Humsi to the Future Movement. So far 30 Israeli spies have been arrested the latest being an army colonel. Lebanon has officially complained to the UN about these spy networks.

3. Political rhetoric - Although there have not been too many fiery speeches, as the election draws closer politicians may try to galvanize support by upping the political rhetoric. Thus, far the only highly controversial speech has been the Nasrallah comment that May 7 "was a glorious day" that created anger and disbelief, even among those that are pro-the resistance.

4. Clan violence/political violence related to the elections - In the Bekka the first 'election related' death has occurred with a clash at a Future Movement office the cause of the clash is not known. It is likely that these kind of clashes are tied up in the local family disputes that is manifested also into political affiliation. However, the risk of family feuds developing into election related ones is a danger.

Will calm reign?

The Der Speigel report - This report illustrated the calm political climate at the moment. This explosive report stated that it had received information that Hezbollah was responsible for assassinating of PM Rafik Hariri . If this story occurred last year would there have been such a calm and calculated reaction by the two coalitions? A match was struck but has been promptly blown out by all sides. Hopefully this is a sign that these elections will pass without too much trouble.

Freedom and Resistance Day

2009-05-27T17:48:00.002+03:00

Some pictures I took from Freedom and Resistance day . Here is a Hezbollah view of what the speech was about.

Main point of the speech: Der Speigel report is an Israeli plant and accusation. We are friends with everyone in Lebanon special focus on the Druze and Walid Junblatt. Basically more conciliatory speech than the previous two that Nasrallah has delievered.

Hezbollah and the Hariri Tribunal

2009-05-24T17:27:00.008+03:00

Just two weeks before the elections Der Spiegel journalist Eric Follath claims to have uncovered - from unnamed sources "close" to the International Tribunal - that Hezbollah are responsible for Hariri's assassination:

"SPIEGEL has learned from sources close to the tribunal and verified by examining internal documents, that the Hariri case is about to take a sensational turn. Intensive investigations in Lebanon are all pointing to a new conclusion: that it was not the Syrians, but instead special forces of the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah ("Party of God") that planned and executed the diabolical attack."

This allegation of course has been strongly rejected by Hezbollah that see this article as a smear and nothing more. Those that also see this article as rubbish are coming up with interesting details that have been listed by Syria Comment. One of the most interesting facts is that this article appears to be very similar to a Le Figaro article in 2006, according to Syria Comment.

The Der Spiegel article gives fascinating detail about one particular character that is central to the allegation of Hezbollah's involvement.

A reckless plotter Abd al-Majid Ghamlush in the attack, Follath claims, unraveled the network when he phoned his girlfriend on one of the "hot phones":

"Ghamlush's recklessness led investigators to the man they now suspect was the mastermind of the terrorist attack: Hajj Salim, 45. A southern Lebanese from Nabatiyah, Salim is considered to be the commander of the "military" wing of Hezbollah and lives in South Beirut, a Shiite stronghold."

Leaking Tribunal

What should be most worrying is that this leak has occurred at all.

It is unfathomable as to how at such a sensitive time in Lebanese politics and just after the four generals release that such a prominent leak could occur; especially two weeks before an election Hezbollah are expected to do well in.

If the Tribunal can not keep its own house in order how can it solve one of the most complex murder mysteries of modern times? Further to this, how will it be able to substantiate the claims that Hezbollah was involved with the assassination of Hariri with the claims out in the open?

If of course Follath fabricated this story then of course that is its own story. However, Der Spiegel is not a mickey mouse publication and apply high standards to their journalism. Follath is part of their investigative journalism team so it really is a Der Spiegel report. Some are pointing to Follath's book on Mossad to show his ties to the Israelis but no real allegations show an obvious bias.

Political Ramifications

In terms of the political effect that this news story has had: Israel has already jumped on the chance with Israeli FM Liberman calling for an international arrest warrant to be given to Nasrallah.

Of greater importance for Lebanon's internal stability is the wise choice thus far of the Future movement to not comment on this article. Although some are suggesting that the Future Movement may have planted the story to dent Hezbollah's chance of getting elected. There is no proof of this. Hani Hammoud, a spokesperson for MP Saad Hariri, refused to comment on the Der Speigel report.

“We do not comment on any media or other kind of reports if the source is not the Special Tribunal,” Hammoud said.

This report will turn the heat up on this election in terms of political rhetoric and the possibility of electoral violence. While the international tribunal now has to continue its investigations in an even more politically tense and suspicious environment. Has this leak sent the International Tribunal into oblivion rather than anyone else?

Biden tying aid to votes

2009-05-22T18:52:00.006+03:00

Vice-President Biden is in town and among the tabouleh surrounding his visit he has said nothing new. The policy that US will tie aid to votes was reiterated and the standard we support no one expecpt for the people that we support.....

Biden, the highest US ranking official to visit Lebanon in 26 years, stated “We will evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the shape of the new government”. Biden then did a lovely rhetorical circle by stating that “I do not come here to back any particular party or any particular person. I come here to back certain principles.”

Thus, the same dance between America and Iran is being played out in Lebanon. However, all we be pleased that the tempo is slower and although there is no love music the death metal has at last been put away.

EU Media Monitoring

2009-05-21T11:13:00.004+03:00

An interview with Mirella Marchese, the head of Media Monitoring as part of the EU Observation Mission.

What is the main objective of international media monitoring?

The main goal of media monitoring within election observation missions is to assess whether parties and candidates gain fair and equitable access to the media, whether political contestants are covered in an unbiased manner, whether the media adhere to regulations on coverage.

Will there be an interim report of media abuses or will reporting only occur after the elections?

In accordance with standard election observation missions’ methodology and in line with the principle of non-interference in the election process, media monitoring findings will be issued at the end of the campaign and will be part of a Preliminary Statement presented immediately after E-day. A more comprehensive analysis will be part of a Final Report normally issued within two months of the completion of the electoral process.

Are the qualitative and quantitative methodology used standardized for all countries or is the methodology tailored to each situation?

A standard media monitoring methodology used by an election observation mission would produce an analysis of the distribution of media time and space given to political contestants. The project aims to provide a clear and reliable observation of the distribution of time and space, based on the measurement of the precise amount of coverage received and its tone. The quantitative analysis of the amount of media coverage and the tone of the coverage constitutes the core of methodology adopted by every mission. However, same variables in the research design can vary according to the different contests. The media analyst will need to refine the monitoring methodology according to the media and political landscape, to the different kinds of elections and to the legal framework in a given country. The methodology usually includes a qualitative analysis, too. The qualitative analysis can focus on a range of different aspects including: instances of hate speech and inflammatory language, media coverage of voter education, the formats used to cover election issues.

What is the size of the media monitoring team?

A media unit of an election observation mission is usually composed of a media analyst and a number of national media assistants. The number of media monitors depends on the size of the sample selected for the analysis. The European Election Observation Mission to Lebanon is currently working with a media monitoring team of 14 media monitors. Our monitored sample includes 8 Lebanese TV stations and 4 newspapers.

"May 7 was a glorious day"

2009-05-20T18:34:00.012+03:00

A lot of discussion has occurred regarding the two speeches that Hassan Nasrallah has given: the first on Friday where Nasrallah made the curious decision to focus his speech on the May events of last year and the second on Tuesday where he focused on the more expected subject of the upcoming Israeli maneuvers.

While the Tuesday speech mentioned nothing of real note in what was said Nasrallah was fiery in his delivery. It almost seems Hezbollah are bored with the current calm that is prevailing over Lebanese politics.

The Friday speech was particularly strange. Nasrallah decided to focus much of the speech on the events of May, which seems curious given that March 14 where having such a difficult time in galvanizing their supporters on the memory of last May. Nasrallah caused particular consternation by stating:

"I say that May 7 was a glorious day for the resistance in Lebanon. Consequently, May 7 has put Lebanon on the right track towards solution and pulled it out of the stalemate that was imposed on it. "

These comments also put Michel Aoun and the FPM in a very difficult position with its own position and Aoun stated that he "understood" why Nasrallah would make such a statement.

Many seasoned analysts, such as Qifa Nabki and the Angry Arab, are at a complete loss to understand what on earth Nasrallah was trying to do in this speech. Angry Arab goes as far to say that this speech is giving weight to the argument that Hezbollah want to lose this election.

Oriente Lux believes that Nasrallah just wanted to make clear that Hezbollah was in the right during the May events. Explaing that Nasrallah wanted to make clear that May 7th (when Hezbollah undertook the military take over) should not be the focus by May 5th (when the cabinet decisions against Hezbollah's telecommunication network) was made.

Personally I think it was a case of over confidence and a political miscalculation, which to Nasrallah's credit are not frequent occurances. The result of his speech could be that he gets bums off seats and into voting booths for March 14. Those people that are not for the March 14 coalition but cannot tolerate Nasrallah stating that the ""May 7 was a glorious day" will now be more likely to put their vote in that booth or take the money being offered.

Two General Michels One President

2009-05-20T09:44:00.006+03:00

Aoun after the 2005 election gained 70% of the Christian vote and subsequently feels that he has the right to be President. However, the President is not elected by the popular vote the Parliament elects the President. Or in the case of President Sleiman the big men of Lebanon are flown off to Doha and finally agree, after nearly going to war, that the head of the army General Michel Sleiman will be the next President. In the Doha agreement Sleiman was given a security portfolio and was given three ministers: the Defense Minister (Elias Murr), Interior Ministry (Ziad Baroud) and a Minister without portfolio (Yousef Taqla). After these elections Sleiman is likely to increase the number of direct supporters in the parliament as the number of 'independents' are most likely going to increase thus give Sleiman more power. It is likely then after these elections that Sleiman will gain more ministerial apponinments, maybe as many as seven, after these elections and will see Sleiman in a more political role rather than a security role.

This of course does not please Aoun and what has irked Aoun especially is that many of the 'indpendent' candidates are in what he sees as 'his' districts. Talking to an FPM supporter he posed the question 'why is it that in Jbeil, Metn and Kesrouan there are all these 'independents'? Why are there no independents running in Bcharre for instance?'

Aoun himself in a recent speech made clear how he felt about the issue of 'independents':

"The purpose behind this action is to dismantle the majority through efforts to infiltrate the lists of the Change and Reform bloc with a deputy in Jbeil called Nazem al-Khoury, a deputy in Kesrouan called Mansour al-Bon, a deputy in Metn called Michel al-Murr, a deputy in Baabda called Edmond Gharios and a deputy in Beirut called Nayla Tueni....I had hoped to see these five deputies joining us on the path for change and reform and not supporting a political group opposing us, for this group’s history is known just like everyone knows where it worked in politics, to whom it succumbed and where it got its support and money to buy new positions."

This intensified and more direct battle between President Sleiman and General Aoun is a good insight into how the post-election field might look like (ignoring Nayla Tueni who is a March 14 "independent" as opposed to a Sleiman "indepednet").While, al-Khoury is a former advisor to the President and formed his Jbeil Independent Decision list. March 14 are very much part of these independents, especially in the Metn, Baabda and Kesrouan. Thus, Aoun referring to the groups history. However, this is complicated by the uncomfortable relationship March 14 have with Sleiman, due to what March 14 perceive to be a lack of protection in last years May 7 th events and most importantly Sleiman being seen as a Syrian appointee. However, with Sleiman gaining his own political backing and March 14 are grudgingly wanting to put the best possible opposition to what looks like a electorally strong March 8, March 14 are accomodating Sleiman's indpendents.

Aoun is not so comfortable with Sleiman taking any of his support. Therefore, the electoral battle that is shaping up between Aoun and Sleiman is going to add yet another interesting dynamic to this election and the post-election landscape of Lebanon.

Zahle and the Politics of Tradition

2009-05-19T10:18:00.013+03:00

Zahle a small but central town in the Bekka is becoming a center piece in the battle between March 14 and March 8 . The district of Zahle holds seven seats (two Greek Catholic, one Sunni, one Shia, one Greek Othordox, one Armenian Orthodox and a Maronite seat). The Greek Catholic dominate Zahle and what is making Zahle so interesting is that some of the population are finding it difficult to reconcile politics with tradition.

For some of the population of Zahle, especially the Catholic, that support March 14 they find it a difficult decision to vote against the traditional leader of the Catholics in Zahle Elias Skaff (who has aligned with the March 8 coalition). As one Zahlenian told me "my heart is with Skaff but my politics is with March 14." The numbers of such voters and how this sort of voter acts on election day will prove decisive in who wins the vital seats in the district. What is clear is that Zahle is going to have one of the most intense electoral competions in Lebanon. But March 8 are dominate in the area and in 2005 won all but one of the seats however, Araji who won the Sunni seat in 05 has moved over to the March 14 list from March 8.

The head of March 14 in Zahle Nicholas Fattoush recently released the March 14 list for Zahle Nicolas Fattouch and Antoine Abu Khater (Catholic seats), Elie Marouni (Maronite seat), Joseph Maalouf (Orthodox seat), Assem Araji (Sunni seat), Okab Sakr (Shia seat) and Chant Jinjinian (Armenian Orthodox seat). Of this list the Sunni candidate Araji and Catholic member Fattouch are the only incumbents. Elias Skaff, the head of the March 8 in Zahle, is still yet to release his list for the district but is expected to do so soon.

Skaff himself is completely confident of his victory in his families traditional heartland. Skaff stated that the relationship between his family and the Zahle community goes back a 100 years and would not be broken now. There is concern about violence in Zahle after an incident between two men that shot at Kataeb supporters that led to two being killed. Skaff strongly denies that these men had anything to do with him despite Kataeb allegations that they were his bodyguards. "These murderers had nothing to do with me but these people came up with their conclusions and continue to mislead people," Skaff said. As to the prospect of violence in the upcoming election Skaff stated that he did not think there would be any problems and was fully confident of complete victory.

In such a tight electoral race that Zahle will no doubt have bodies such as the Constitutional Council will of course be vital. Skaff stated that he thinks that if no agreement can be reached then the President should impose the decision. "You cannot have the elections without the Constitutional Council," Skaff stated.

Zahle also has a female candidate running for the Catholic seat. Magda Baradi is running as an independent in the Zahle seat but has many prominent billboards all around Zahle and outside. It will be interesting if Baradi can break through in this traditional political town.

The Lebanese Political Framework

2009-05-16T15:50:00.001+03:00

Open publication - Free publishing - More politics

A comprehensive guide to media in Lebanon

2009-05-15T15:13:00.000+03:00

Open publication - Free publishing - More media

The risk of violence

2009-05-15T14:09:00.012+03:00

The risk of violence in Lebanon is an ever present threat and with the prospect of a tightly contested election many are scared of the prospect that the electoral competition could become violent. Recently there have been a few minor secutiry incidents but it has not gripped Lebanon as some media reports have suggested. The main incidents have been shots fired while prominent candidates were delivering speeches and the break in at Ibrhaim Kanaan's parents house (Kanaan has posted pictures of the damage).

There have been several incidents of billboards being vandalized either by being ripped down (as with the FPM candidate pictured) or being burnt (as with the Future poster). However, as long as the frustrations are meted out on billboards not too many people will mind.

Human Rights

2009-05-15T09:09:00.004+03:00

Human Rights Watch has released a report focusing on the areas of concern in Lebanon with regard to Human Rights and demanded that candidates for the elections make human rights part of their platform.

"Lebanese politicians need to move beyond their slogans of promoting ‘justice, reform and equality' and start explaining exactly how they plan to achieve these objectives," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. "At a minimum, they should promise to put an end to torture and amend laws that discriminate against women and Palestinian refugees."

The report highlights five areas of human rights abuse that it perceives should be addressed by candidates and gives guidelines on how the candidates should act on these measures. The five areas are (in the order in the report):

1. Torture
2. The Disappeared
3. Women's rights
4. Migrant Workers
5. Palestinian Refugee's

The saga continues

2009-05-14T10:50:00.000+03:00

The cabinet failed yesterday to elect the minimum five members needed for the Constitutional Council as talks collapsed over the appointment of the governors of Beirut and Mount Lebanon and the general director of political affairs in the interior ministry. Sleiman, according to Now Lebanon, stated that the completion of the Constitutional Council “will be discussed by the Council of Ministers in ten days’ time in an extraordinary meeting, if need be.”

Interestingly showing how international observers presence can have an affect on the local political process Defense Minister Elias al-Murr stressed the importance of appointing the governors of Beirut and Mount Lebanon “because the international monitors [for the elections] consider the vacancy of these positions to be a major problem for the organization of the elections,” according to As-Safir.

More worrying though is that while the political deadlock continues over ensuring the elections are run correctly reports of violence are occurring. The FPM claim, "an armed gang stormed an office of the Free Patriotic Movement in Mazboud," and reports that "two Future Movement banners were set on fire in Beirut using Molotov bombs early" this morning.

Constitutional Council - The end of the saga?

2009-05-13T13:44:00.000+03:00

The Constitutional Council (picture of the council before it disbanded in 05), or the lack of it, is Lebanon's biggest issue regarding the upcoming election. It is the only body that is able to decide on electoral disputes and ensures the constitutionality and legality of the electoral law. The problem is that since the Constitutional Council was disbanded in 2005 after the last elections the minimum of five judges needed for the council to function have yet to be appointed. However, there are glimmers of hope that there may be agreement on who will make up the council as the Council of Ministers discuss the issue today. It has been reported that Sleiman has stated that if the Council of Ministers cannot decide by consensus then the appoinments will be put to a vote.

As to who the members could be As-Safir reported that the opposition has decided on two of five members yet to be elected former minister Assaad Diab, a Shiite, and Greek Orthodox judge Salah Mukhaiber. Sleiman recommended Raymond Eid, a Maronite, while Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt was likely to name Druze candidate Suheil Abdel Samad. Siniora will decide the Sunni member.

Al Akhbar Predictions

2009-05-12T11:04:00.000+03:00

Al-Akhbar has put together the predictions of the four top pollsters in Lebanon Jawad Adra, Abdo Saad, Rabih al-Hibr, and Kamal Feghali. Qifa Nabki has provided a excellent translation of the article.

The predictions:

March 14
Best Result = 71 seats
Worst Result = 48 seats

March 8
Best Result = 80 seats
Worst Result = 57 seats

The districts that the pollsters could not agree on were Saida, Batroun, Koura, Metn, Beirut 1, West Bekka and Zahle.

The Electoral List

2009-05-11T15:49:00.000+03:00

In every district the candidates of March 8 and March 14 are listed in an electoral list, that are often give exuberant names such as the Tripoli Solidarity List or The Will of Zgharta-Zawyi List. Once the list is finalised the names are put on a pre-printed ballot paper (as pictured above) and distributed to voters. This list can be a torturing process for the two coalitions where negotiations as to who is placed on the list can lead to painful internal disputes. This has already happened most prominently with March 14 and the withdrawl of Nassib Lahoud from the Metn, the reason Lahoud stated was that he would not be on an electoral list that he did not have a part in creating. While a lack of agreement between Nabih Berri and Michel Aoun over the list in the district of Jezzine is setting up an interesting political battle.

The various electoral lists have been dripping through and the hotly contested district of Metn announced, while in Beirut 1 March 8 have announced their list but March 14 are still waiting to announce their Armenian candidates. One of the most important districts in this election, in terms of competitiveness, is Zahle and neither March 8/14 are yet to announce their candidate.

In almost all the lists there is a dominate party, from either the March 8 or March 14 coalition, heading it but on the list there are usually many 'independent' candidates. Take for example the Change and Reform list in Jbeil headed by Aoun's FPM party. The list contains two FPM party members Simon Ramia and Walid al-Khoury who are both running for the two Maronite seats but for the Shia seat a non-FPM member Abbas Hashem has been placed on the Change and Reform List. Thus, Hashem is known as a Change and Reform MP and not an FPM MP.

Interestingly in Jbeil there is one of the few non-March 14 or March 8 electoral lists headed by a former adviser to the President Nazem Khoury called the Jbeil Independent Decision List.Other lists that are headed by 'independent' candidates are in Metn and Tripoli. In the Metn the 'March 14' list is headed by Michel Murr who is viewed as an 'independent' and the Tripoli Solidarity List headed by Mohammad Mikati also seen as 'independent' (both are major political/business figures in their respective districts). Independent at the moment is translating as aligned with the President.

Important Electoral Lists - Some lists are self evident as to whether it is a March 8 or March 14 list with the name of the party i.e. Future list. Some like those below differ:

Change and Reform List (March 8) - This is the electoral list headed by Michel Aoun's FPM (The Free Patriotic Movement).

The Will of Zgharta-Zawyi List (March 8) - Headed by Sleiman Frangieh head of the Marada movement.

Tripoli Solidarity List (March 14) - Headed by Mohammad Najib Mikati who is an 'independent' and while many on this list are also 'independent' this list is viewed as March 14 list as it has three March 14 candidates on it.

The Metn Salvation List (March 14)- Headed by 'independent' Michel Murr that includes 2 Kataeb candidates (M14), 1 Lebanese Forces (M14) and 4 'Independent' candidates.

Interior Ministry Announces 293 violations

2009-05-08T12:50:00.000+03:00

The Commission for Monitoring the Elections issued its first report saying that 293 electoral violations were committed between April 14 and 28. "Violations include libel and slander (52 percent), accusations of treason (18 percent), intimidation (10 percent), provocation (5 percent), stirring sectarian feelings (5 percent) and other violations (10 percent)," the report said. Those media outlets committing the violations were not named but Minister Baroud warned that in second report this would change and the media outlets names would be submitted to the Constitutional Council. With the Constitutional Council still not up and running the ability to stop these violations remains institutionally weak.

Different Observor Same .....

2009-05-07T17:26:00.000+03:00

The National Democratic Institute held a press conference to launch their observer mission with a pre-election assessment delegation. At the head of this delegation was Madeline Albright, former Secretary of State, who was accompanied by Joseph Clark, former PM of Candida and Kenneth Wollack, President of the NDI.

Not surprisingly this press conference was much the same as the EU observers press conference in the conclusions that the pre-election assessment drew. However, they did criticise the districts stating that the large discrepancies in registered voters meaning that the 'weight' of the vote differed from district to district. The delegation also stressed that although there was significant loop holes in the regulation of campaign finance the insertion for the first time into the election law set a significant precedent.

There was of course a little extra stress on Hezbollahs (and other groups) weapons stating that they "threaten security". As the NDI observer mission is funded by USAID they are not allowed to talk to Hezbollah making it tricky to be an election observer. However, Albright stated that although they did not meet with Hezbollah they met with their allies (Albright met with Speaker Berri today) the Observers would meet with all those engaged with the electoral process.

Election spending

2009-05-05T16:35:00.000+03:00

A lot has been made of the fact that huge amounts of money are to pour into Lebanon during the election period. The Election law has for the first time introduced campaign spending regulations.

There is a fixed ceiling at $100,000 for every district. Then there is a flexible ceiling that varies in each district that works on the basis of 4,000 Lebanese Lira ($3) for every registered voter in the district. The information for the spending can be found at the ministry website.

The elections on YouTube

2009-05-05T14:41:00.000+03:00

While the traditional media is being monitored for the first time in this election. In the new media and in particular You Tube full scale slander on both sides is in full swing. I will leave you to search on YouTube the many videos made by supporters of March 8 and March 14 making fun out of each other. It is a testament to the freedom of media here that YouTube is still available!

YouTube - FPM advert

2009-05-05T14:39:00.000+03:00

YouTube - Lebanese Forces Official advert

2009-05-05T14:38:00.001+03:00

YouTube - Kataeb Official advert

2009-05-05T14:37:00.000+03:00

A Quota for Women?

2009-05-04T19:09:00.001+03:00

In 1953, Emily Ibrahim was the first Lebanese woman to present her candidacy for the parliamentary elections in Zahle. Ibrahim however was to withdraw her candidacy from the race of 1953 in what is a fitting illustration for women in Lebanese politics. Lebanon is 123^rd out of 136 in terms of its international ranking of female representation in parliament. Women have gained the right to vote and be elected but have yet to gain the conditions needed to make female representation in parliament a reality.

Chantal Sarkis, The International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES) Program Manager, articulated the dire situation of women in Lebanon’s parliamentary system, “Lebanese women parliamentarians have been branded as the women “dressed in black”. Historically, the most likely way for a woman to enter the political scene in Lebanon was to fill a post made absent by a male heir.” Sarkis went on to explain that, “in fact, since 1963, most of the women, with the exception of current MP Ghinwa Jalloul, entered into the Lebanese parliament because of their traditional and familial ties not because of their political or social affiliations.”

The first women minister was not until 2004. “When the government of Prime Minister Omar Karami was formed in November 2004, Lebanon Leila Solh, daughter of former Prime Minister Riad Solh and Wafaa Hamza, close to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri were appointed ministers,” said Sarkis.

Chart of Female Candidates to the Parliament from 1953 to 2005	Nb. Of Female Candidates	Nb. Of Female Winners
1953	1	0
1957	1	0
1960	2	0
1963 (by election)	1	1
1964	2	0
1965 (by election)	1	0
1968	2	0
1972	4	0
1991	0	1 (appointment)
1992	6	3
1996	11	3
2000	18	3
2005	14	6

Source Lebanese Parliament

There has been a debate about introducing a quota system and most formally a quota was included in the Boutros Commission proposal for a new electoral law, this proposal was rejected. However, Sarkis explained that, “during the parliamentary sessions of September 2008 to vote on a new electoral law no concrete system was proposed and the reserved seat system was intentionally neglected due to the fear of adding another quota to the existing confessional and geographical quota.”

Sarkis argues that although the quota system was rejected the push for higher representation of women in parliament should not stop. “There are three different ways in which this battle can be fought: Reserved seats, Statutory gender quotas or Voluntary gender quotas.” The advantage of the voluntary gender quota does not require a law or regulation and relies on the will of the political parties. The best system Sarkis argues for Lebanon is the adoption of the proportional representation system or a mixed system combined with some positive actions policies. “Those policies could be statutory quotas controlling the gender balance of candidates’ lists for all parties and a rank-ordering system of the candidates. The statutory quotas would control the composition of candidates’ lists established by law or constitution. All parties’ lists running under the PR system would be required that women must constitute a minimal proportion of parliamentary candidates within each party,” Sarkis stated.

While the chance to implement such a strategy for the upcoming election has long since gone Sarkis is focusing on the 2010 municipality elections. “This should be the right time and place to implement a number of reformist steps starting with the women quota and ending with a radical change of the electoral system.”

EU Observation Mission

2009-05-04T18:47:00.000+03:00

The EU officially launched their observation mission with a press conference and announcing that the 30 long term observers have been deployed around the country in two teams. A further 50 short term observers will be deployed closer to the election day. The EU mission has also launched a website with information on the mission. The final report of the mission will be published "shortly" after election day and posted on the website, the observation team will leave on the 21st June.

The Chief Observer is a Spanish Member of the European Parliament Jose Ignacio Salafranca Sanchez-Neyra who also led the mission in 2005. The Chief Observer called for need for the Constitutional Council to be established and deplored the fact that a universalized pre-printed ballot had not been introduced.

The main objectives of the mission are to:

Enhance public confidence in the electoral process
Deter fraud
Strengthen respect for human rights
Contribute to resolution of conflict

Lebanon's Electoral System

2009-04-30T15:47:00.000+03:00

A briefing paper by IFES on the Lebanese Electoral System. Further information can be found at www.ifes.org/lebanon
Lebanese Electoral System Lebanese Electoral System Deen Sharp A breakdown of Lebanon's electoral system.

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Humanities Research ifes electoral system

Women and the elections

2009-04-28T11:07:00.001+03:00

Aoun's FPM have caused quite a stir with this poster calling you to, "be beautiful and vote". So much so that they felt the need to write an article defending the campaign (in Arabic). The Feminist Collective stated 12 reasons as to why they found this billboard offensive, while Menassat wrote a story with the title "Be Beautiful and Vote" or "Be Intelligent and Vote Blank?" And +961 posted a great blog on the billboard war that this poster has sparked and the general contest that billboards have sparked.

This debate must lead to an actual discussion of women and the elections.

Of the 12 female candidates for this election only three are likely to be elected and all are attached to powerful families and/or male figures: Nayla Tunei, Bahia Hariri and Stridea Geagea. This will mean that the number of women in the Lebanese Parliament is likely to stay the same at three. IRIN articulated how bad this situation is by stating that this number was, " far fewer than politically restricted neighbors such as Syria, which had 30 women MPs out of 250; Jordan which had 13 out of 165; and Egypt which had 31 out of 718."

A quota for women?

Aoun has been criticized by the fact that the FPM are not fielding any female candidates. Aoun responded by stating that he had asked three women to run "but they apologized saying they were not ready.” Aoun went on to defend his record with regard to women's rights stating that he supported the draft law wanting to establish a quota for women in Parliament and that “women should have 50% of the parliamentary seats, not 10 or 20%.”

In an interview with Now Lebanon Nayla Tueni stated she was against a quota. "I’m not with the quota for women because it’s like you’re putting limits for women. It’s not ideal to say, for example, “You only have 15 seats for women.” I’d like to see a much bigger number of women in parliament, and there should be.

The debate as to whether a quota should be established or not for women certainly needs a to be continued and focused on a lot more. While, Lebanon may have a better situation for women in the job market the parliamentary representation of the expected 3 out of 128 is abysmal; women do after all make up 52% of the population.

The 12 female candidates for this elections are:

Ghada al-Dandashi Sunni, Tripoli
Hoda Sankari Sunni, Tripoli
Regine Kantara Maronite, Tripoli

Sethrida Geagea Maronite, March 14, Bcharre

Ibtisam Saadi Sunni, Baalbek-Hermel

Magda Bridi Catholic, Zahli

Norma Ferzli, Greek Orthodox, West Bekka-Rashaya

Therese Rizk Allah Maronite, Baabda

Gilberte Zouwien Maronite, FPM, Kesrwan

Nayla Tueni, Greek Orthodox, March 14 affiliated, Beriut 1

Ghenwa Jalloul, Sunni, Beirut 3

Bahia Hariri, Sunni, March 14, Saida

UPDATE: This billboard appears to be getting more and more popular as the English paper The Times included the billboard in its picture of the day.

Corruption yes but the focus should be the increased sectarianism!

2009-04-24T15:47:00.000+03:00

The New York Times correspondent Robert Worth has given the Lebanese elections their first intentional exposure in the English language press. Worth makes some pretty big claims stating that, "The parliamentary elections here in June are shaping up to be among the most expensive ever held anywhere, with hundreds of millions of dollars streaming into this small country from around the globe."

There is no doubt hundreds of millions of dollars will stream into Lebanon and I have already had people email me asking which parties are offering free flights; by the way I don't know! I am at a loss at how the editors of the NYT let such hyperbole slip through "the most expensive ever held anywhere". Somehow I think the US elections may beat Lebanon.... But don't worry he has covered himself with wonderful words such as "shaping up" and "among". No doubt these will 'probably be the best elections in the world!'

Worth is however, correct in highlighting the wide scale corruption and vote buying that will go on in this election. The article articulates how systemic corruption in the Lebanese electoral system has become. "Lebanon has campaign spending limits this year for the first time, and the Arab world’s first system to monitor that spending, by the Lebanese chapter of Transparency International. But the limits — which are very loose to begin with — apply only in the last two months of the campaign. And they are laughably easy to circumvent, according to election monitors and Lebanese officials."

When I talked to Gaëlle Kibranian, the Project Director for Lebanese Transparency International (LTA), she denied that candidates are ignoring this issue completely. "The main political parties/blocs in Lebanon are using the promotion of transparency as part of their electoral program especially when it comes to campaign finance. They are all taking the question very seriously, trying to abide by the law, in order to avoid future challenges." Kibranian did not deny however, the serious shortcomings in the law and not to mention the fact that the Constituinal Council (CC) is still yet to be established. This means that any corruption that the LTA uncover cannot be prosecuted or even looked at officially. There will be more on the issue of the CC in the future.

I can not come to terms with the fact Worth does not mention sectarianism once in the article!! The most serious implication of the 2008 election law is the fact that it has increased sectarian nature of Lebanese politics. Not once! As Kibranian told me, "the main problem in Lebanon remains confessionalism, which shapes the relationship between citizens and state, as well as the lack of separation of powers.These lead to nepotism, clientalism, and patronage." As the Democracy Reporting International report stated on the electoral law the new law accentuates confessional differences and is "increasing the long-term potential for conflict in the country."

It was also interesting the candidates that he picked out. Only Walid Maalouf and Ahmed al-Asaad two very marginal but very pro-US politicians. I actually am a fan of Robert Worth but I think he needed a bit less hyperbole and more thought on this one.

Jumblatt out of March 14? part II

2009-04-23T17:30:00.000+03:00

At the beginning of the month I stated that it was likely that Walid Junblatt would drop out of the March 14 coalition after the elections.

Now a video taken on an iphone at a private meeting of Druze hierarchy and released to New TV. Friday Lunch Club has provided a full translation of what he said. What is really causing consternation, apart from Junblatt appearing to have trouble remembering Geagea's (the leader of the Lebanese Forces) name, is his statement that the Sunni and March 14 Christians wanted to sit back while the Druze and Shia fought (in the events of the 7th May) and that he called the Maronite's a "bad breed".

With regard to the elections the pro March 14 commentator Michael Young articulates the consequences succinctly: "The political consequences of his statements will be grave, particularly in Baabda. In Zahleh, too, observers expect Elie Skaff to gain from Maronite retaliation against March 14. In the West Bekaa, the Sunnis have been angry with Jumblatt for some weeks now due to his alliance with Nabih Berri, and his latest comments may have repercussions on how they vote for Wael Abou Faour, even if he probably will be elected. In the Metn, the Kisirwan, and Jbeil, March 14 has just been made weaker, as Michel Aoun will be able to argue that those Maronites who allied with Jumblatt were all along despised by him." Young also believes that the video was released deliberatley by Jumblatt.

The June Elections - Who will win? Part 1

2009-04-21T15:09:00.000+03:00

The known knowns and the known unknowns

The embedded document gives a conservative prediction as to what is known as to who will win in what districts and what is unknown as of the end of April.

The Known knowns

March 8 have 46 seats that are safely theirs and 9 that are probable = 55 seats

March 14 have 44 seats that are safely theirs and 11 that are probable = 55 seats

The known unknowns

There are going to be 38 seats in all that are going to be competitive and 18 that are really completely unknown as to who will win.

Predictions for the Elections 2009

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Beirut 1 - Keeping it in the family

2009-04-20T18:34:00.000+03:00

Lebanon will see many candidates that come from traditional political families. All of the female MPs running for parliament of which there are 8 come from prominent Lebanese families.

The district of Beirut 1 is seeing a particular case of 'carrying on tradition' with Nayla Tueni and Nadim Gemayel both fighting for a seat in the district:

Nayla Tueni the daughter of assassinated journalist, editor and MP Gibran Tueni. Tueni will be running for the Greek Orthodox seat in Beirut 1. Tueni does not belong to a political party or the March 14 coalition but is running as an ally of the coalition. Her main opponent in the Beirut 1 district is current Minister Issam Abu Jamra. Prominet posters such as this one have began to appear in the Beirut 1 district. An interview with Nayla Tueni in Now Lebanon.

Nadim Gemayel is the son of the assassinated former president Bashir Gemayel. In this poster he is positioned in exactly the same way of a famous picture that his father poses in posted all over Beirut. Nadim Gemayel is running in Beirut's 1st district for the Maronite seat.

The OFFICAL ELECTION WEBSITE

2009-04-17T15:38:00.000+03:00

Not that I want to shoot myself in the foot by telling you to go elsewhere for information on the elections. But the Ministry of Interior, in association with IFES, has launched a website dedicated to the elections. The Elections 2009 website is a trilingual website to address the specific stakeholders in the elections: the candidates, voters, polling officials, observers and the media. The website provides legal information such as the electoral law and decree related to the election. In addition to this, all the electoral districts are listed with the number of seats for each district and the candidates.

The website also provides information on the electoral system, legal information such as the electoral law and decrees related to the election.

The election website provides information on the SCEC (The Supervisory Commission for Electoral Campaigns). Information includes the mandate of SCEC, by laws, members, regulations and will include reports published by the SCEC.

The website has interactive features such as a list of polling stations that will then allow the voter to type in his/her name and locate where he/she should vote. The website will have a map locating the polling station and a picture of the polling station. Further to this, it will detail the accessibility of the polling station for those voters that need disabled access.

Post elections the full results will be posted on the website. After the 2009 elections have been finalized the website will then be used for the 2010 municipality elections.

A Senate for Lebanon?

2009-04-15T10:09:00.000+03:00

A new civil society initiative has been launched promoting the idea of creating a Senate for Lebanon. The Lebanese Campaign for a Senate, "seeks to raise awareness about the ways in which the creation of a senate would work to dismantle political sectarianism in Lebanon".

Party Slogans - Green Party

2009-04-15T09:52:00.000+03:00

The Green Party slogans

The poster says, "Because the earth is not confessional".

Party Slogans - Hezbollah

2009-04-15T09:33:00.000+03:00

This is the party slogan for Hassan Nasrallah's Hezbollah

The poster has Lebanon in big green letters with the Hezbollah logo faded to the left. On the right with a red strike through reads, "~~Your Lebanon, Our Lebanon, Their Lebanon ".~~

For an excellent article on Hezbollah's election campaign see Qifa Nabki.

Party Slogans - Lebanese Forces

2009-04-15T09:29:00.000+03:00

The party slogan for Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces

The poster says, "With your vote the picture changes". The picture in the corner is from the opposition demonstration of last year.

Party Slogans - FPM

2009-04-15T09:15:00.000+03:00

The election slogans from General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement:

This poster says, "No future without change". The poster that is ripped is imitating the Future Movements campaign poster.

Translation "So all of your votes can either be right right or wrong wrong". This is playing on the fact that the FPM slogan is a tick.

Party Slogans - Future

2009-04-15T08:49:00.000+03:00

Party slogan for Saad Hariri's Future Movement:

Pictures are courtesy of Qifa Nabki

The posters read, from left to right: (1) The future is where you will spend the rest of your life; (2) In order to know the future, you have to build it; (3) The future is promising, without a doubt. The third poster is the only one which permits a full analogical reading, producing “The Future [Movement] has promised, without a doubt,” alongside the literal “future is promising” message. (Translations also courtesy of Qifa Nabki)

Party Slogans - Amal

2009-04-14T21:54:00.000+03:00

Election campaign poster for Nahbi Berri's Amal party:

Translates as "perseverance". This campaign has similar posters with the main word being "Development", "Democracy", "Hope" with different pictures with each slogan.

Election law 2008

2009-04-09T15:28:00.000+03:00

Election law 08

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The June 2009 Elections: Issues and Challenges

2009-04-08T20:59:00.000+03:00

The April 8^th deadline for the registration of candidates has been reached for the June 7^th general elections and there are now exactly 60 days in until elections. To coincide with this important event The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), The Carnegie Middle East Center (CMEC), The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS) and the International Crisis Group (ICC) organized a workshop entitled “The June 2009 Elections: Issues and Challenges”.

Attending the workshop and giving the keynote address was H.E. Minister of Interior Ziyad Baroud. Minister Baroud noted that for the upcoming election, “simple [election] issues that are standard in other countries are being applied for the first time in Lebanon,” Baroud stated. Achievements such as the holding of the elections on one day, creation of the SCEC (Supervisory Commission on the Electoral Campaign) and the publication of the voter register are significant improvements, Baroud stated. The publication of the voter register for the first time resulted in 4.7 million visits to the Ministry of Interior website and 250,000 corrections to the register, according to Minister Baroud. Further to this, for the first time the list of candidates running in the elections will be made publically available. However, Baroud expressed disappointment at the overall electoral framework. “We wanted an ambitious democratic space but with the current electoral law this is not what we have and on the 8^th of June our first mission will be [to create] a new electoral law…I am applying a [electoral] law I do not like,” Baroud stated. One aspect of the current law that Baroud expressed particular dislike to was the omission of an official universal ballot paper and the continued use of the pre-printed ballot. As for the electoral system as a whole Baroud stated that he wanted to see Lebanon use a proportional electoral system away from the current majoritarian system. Minister Baroud ended his speech on a high note stating that the registration of 702 candidates was a “great” and that the elections will “put the finger on the problems [of Lebanon]”.

Registration Complete - 702 candidates

2009-04-08T15:56:00.000+03:00

The registration for the elections is complete with 702 candidates registered. IFES (The International Foundation of Electoral Systems) complied a list of all the registered candidates. The most important news: 1. there is only one uncontested seat, which is in the Metn Armenian Orthodox seat; the Beirut II district will be a competitive race despite an agreement at Doha; that there appear at the moment to be too many candidates for certain seats and that both the March 14 and March 8 coalition will have to negotiate internally as to the final list they propose.

The breakdown of the candidates in the districts:

Akkar (North Lebanon) - 7 seats 51 candidates
Sunni 3 seats 27 candidates
Greek Orthodox 2 seats 14 candidates
Alawite 1 seat 4 candidates
Maronite 1 seat 6 candidates

Minieh-Dinnieh (North Lebanon) - 3 seats 40 candidates
Sunni 3 seats 40 candidates

Tripoli (North Lebanon) - 8 seats 50 candidates
Sunni 5 seats 27 candidates
Alawite 1 seat 10 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 5 candidates
Maronite 1 seat and 8 candidates

Zgharta (Mount Lebanon) - 3 seats 11 candidates
Maronite 3 seats 11 candidates

Koura (Mount Lebanon) - 3 seats 14 candidates
Greek Orthodox 3 seats 14 candidates

Bcharre (Mount Lebanon) - 2 seats 8 candidates
Maronite 2 seats 8 candidates

Batroun (Mount Lebanon) - 2 seats 12 candidates
Maronite 2 seats 12 candidates

Baalbeck-Hermel (Bekka)- 10 seats 51 candidates
Shia 6 seats 33 candidates
Sunni 2 seats 8 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 6 candidates
Maronite 1 seat 4 candidates

Zahle (Bekka) 7 seats 69 candidates
Greek Catholic 2 seats 10 candidates
Armenian Orthodox 1 seat 8 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 8 candidates
Maronite 1 seat 7 candidates
Shia 1 seat 13 candidates
Sunni 1 seat 23 candidates

West Bekka-Rashaya (Bekka) 6 seats 34 candidates
Sunni 2 seats 19 candidates
Druze 1 seat 2 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 4 candidates
Maronite 1 seat 2 candidates
Shia 1 seat 7 candidates

Jbeil (Mount Lebanon) 3 seats 27 candidates
Maronite 2 seats 14 candidates
Shia 1 seat 13 candidates

Kesrwan (Mount Lebanon) 5 seats 30 candidates
Maronite 5 seats 30 candidates

Metn (Mount Lebanon) 8 seats 33 candidates
Maronite 4 seats 17 candidates
Greek Orthodox 2 seats 6 candidates
Armenian Orthodox 1 seat 1 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 8 candidates

Baabda (Mount Lebanon) 6 seats 45 candidates
Maronite 3 seats 20 candidates
Shia 2 seats 16 candidates
Druze 1 seats 9 candidates

Aley (Mount Lebanon) 5 seats 17 candidates
Druze 2 seats 3 candidates
Maronite 2 seats 7 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 7 candidates

Chouf (Mount Lebanon) 8 seats 23 candidates
Marontie 3 seats 8 candidates
Druze 2 seats 5 candidates
Sunni 2 seats 7 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 3 candidates

Beirut 1 5 seats 23 candidates
Armenian Catholic 1 seat 5 candidates
Armenain Orthodox 1 seat 5 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 2 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 6 candidates
Maronite 1 seat 5 candidates

Beirut 2 4 seats 19 candidates
Armenian Orthodox 2 seats 6 candidates
Shia 1 seat 8 candidates
Sunni 1 seat 5 candidates

Beirut 3 10 seats 48 candidates
Sunni 5 seats 28 candidates
Christian Minorities 1 seat 3 candidates
Druze 1 seat 3 candidates
Evangelical 1 seat 3 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 5 candidates
Shia 1 seat 6 candidates

Saida (South Lebanon) 2 seats 5 candidates
Sunni 2 seats 5 candidates

Jezzine (South Lebanon) 3 seats 25 candidates
Marontie 2 seats 14 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 11 candidates

Zahrany (South Lebanon) 3 seats 11 candidates
Shia 2 seats 6 candidates
Greek Catholic 1 seat 5 candidates

Nabatieh (South Lebanon) 3 seats 15 candidates
Shia 3 seats 15 candidates

Hasbaya-Marjayoun (South Lebanon) 5 seats 20 candidates
Shia 2 seats 7 candidates
Druze 1 seat 2 candidates
Greek Orthodox 1 seat 2 candidates
Sunni 1 seat 9 candidates

Tyre (South Lebanon) 4 seats 8 candidates
Shia 4 seats 8 candidates

Bint Jbeil (South Lebanon) 3 seats 11 candidates
Shia 3 seats 11 candidates

Jumblatt to drop out of March 14?

2009-04-07T11:44:00.000+03:00

It is expected that Jumblatt will drop out of the March 14 coalition after the elections. This decision is expected as Jumblatt has increasingly distanced himself from the coalition after disputes on electoral candidates. Jumblatt has largely being balancing between all the political factions as to where candidates are allocated. Further to this, a member of Jumblatt's inner circle stated that he expects this move to occur but has not been told directly by Jumblatt. This senior Druze community member stated that this change of course by Jumblatt is due to the regional and international climate and the Obama administrations plans for the region.

April 8th an important election date

2009-04-02T11:16:00.000+03:00

Weds 8 April marks the point when it is exactly 60 days to the election. The election law states very important measure that come into affect from this point:

Deadline for registration of candidates. Art. 49(1)

If only one application has been received for a seat, that candidate is declared uncontested winner. Art. 50

Latest date for the start of campaign finance regulations. Art. 54 (compliance begins on date of application of candidacy)

Latest date for the start of media campaign regulations upon candidate. Art. 65 (compliance begins on date of application of candidacy)

Starting date for media outlets to comply with media campaign regulations. Assumed from Art. 65

Start date for all audio-visual media to provide voter education Art. 69

Start date for all local authorities to provide billposting locations Art. 70

Start date of regulatory provisions on opinion polling Art. 74(2)

The April 8th Candidate Deadline Nears

2009-04-02T10:21:00.000+03:00

The date for the final registration of candidates for the election is approaching. A deluge of candidates names has been released by the various political parties in Lebanon bringing the total to 222, according Now Lebanon.

Hezbollah have released their full candidate list:
-Nabatiyeh: MP Mohammad Raad, head of Hizbullah's Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc
-Tyre district: MP Mohammad Fneish (Minister) and Nawwaf Mousawi (formerly chief of Hizbullah International Relations office)
-Bint Jbeil district: MP Hassan Fadlallah
-Marjayoun-Hasbaya: Ali Fayad
-Baalbek-Hermel: MP Hussein Hajj Hassan, Hussein Moussawi , MP Nawwar Sahili, MP Ali Moqdad
-Baabda: MP Ali Ammar
-Beirut 2nd district: MP Amin Cherri

While March 14 have said that they will have agreed on their full candidate list by Sunday. While the SSNP also stated that they will have a list of candidates finalized by Sunday.

Armenians and the elections - Part 3

2009-04-01T16:07:00.000+03:00

Tashnak have reportedly rejected any type of alliance with Hariri and the March 14 coalition. Tashnak reiterated that they will be aligned with Aoun in all districts but also stated that they would reach out to all sides before and after the elections. Now Lebanon stated that Tashnak stated that “As it is known, Hariri, during a meeting on March 6 with Tashnaq Secretary General Hovig Mekhitarian, in the presence of MP Michel al-Murr, proposed to exchange four parliamentary seats out of six for us to vote in favor of the March 14 alliance in the Beirut I district, Metn and Zahle.”

The party told Hariri during the second meeting on Tuesday night about the formation of an Armenian bloc to include five deputies, with a sixth reserved for Armenian parties allied with Hariri, which would have the freedom to make political decisions, but the future leader did not respond, according to the statement.

International Election Observors

2009-03-31T13:48:00.000+03:00

There are many international election observation missions coming to Lebanon and coordination will no doubt be a challenge. However, there is a deceleration of principals for International observer missions that also contains a code of conduct.

International Election Observers for the 2009 elections:

European Election Observation Mission - Observed in 2005.

The EU have kindly published the terms of reference for the core observation team members. Further to this, there is the election observers handbook

Carter Center - First time observer in Lebanon

National Democratic Institute - Started observation mission in 1996.

Russian Observation Mission (TBC)- First time observer in Lebanon

Arab League Observation Mission

Further to this many smaller observation missions are expected and embassys have also sent observation missions. In 2005 the Canadian embassy sent an observer mission for example.

Armenians and the elections - Part 2

2009-03-30T11:07:00.002+03:00

This weekend Tashnak released their electoral list. The candidates are:

George Qassargi to run for the Armenian seat in Zahle, Hagop Bakradonian to run in the Northern Metn, Artur Nazarian for the Armenian Orthodox seat in Beirut’s second district, and Gregore Kalost for the Catholic Armenian and Freij Sabonjain for the Orthodox Armenian seats in Beirut’s first electoral district.

Agop Bakradonian is the only formal member of the Tashnak party who will be running in the Beirut II district (there are two Armenian seats). In this district it has already been agreed that the two Armenian candidates will be split with one going to March 8 and one to March 14.

Importantly there was no mention as to the lists that the candidates would run on. However, it is expected that these candidates will run on a Tashnak list that would leave the door open to both Aoun and Murr.

The Lebanese-Armenian Community and the elections - Part 1

2009-03-26T10:10:00.000+02:00

This is the first of a series of blogs that will be posted on the Armenian community and the upcoming elections. There has been extensive media coverage (in English see Now Lebanon and the excellent article in the Daily Star) on the Armenian community and the upcoming elections. The focus on the Armenian community has been primarily because the community will play a key role in the Metn where a tight electoral battle is expected between FPM and Kataeb.
Picture by Harout (CC)

The Armenian community in Lebanon:

Incumbent Armenian Politicians:

Beirut 1 and 2

Hagop Kassarjian (Armenian Orthodox, Ramgavar, March 14)

Jean Oghassabian (Armenian Orthodox, Independent, March 14)

Yeghia Djerdjian (Armenian Orthodox, Hanchak, March 14)

Serge Torsarkissian (Armenian Catholic, Independent, March 14)

Metn

Hagop Pakradonian (Armenian Orthodox, Tashnak, C&R)

Zahle

George Qassarji (Armenian Orthodox, Tashnak, C&R)

The political context of Lebanese-Armenians

Traditionally the Armenians, or the dominant party Tashnak, follow a policy of alligning with President of Lebanon. During the tenure of President Lahoud this policy led to significant difficulties with former assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The troubled relations with Hariri continued with his son, Saad Hariri. In the 05 elections Tashnak and Saad Hariri went head to head. This resulted in Saad Hariri, in the 05 elections, electing 'his' Armenian candidates (in other words the Armenian candidates won their seats through being on Hariri's electoral list and not through Armenian/Tashnak votes). Thus, Tashnak only won two of the six allocated Armenian seats in Lebanon and this was done primarily through an alliance with the FPM as the two winning candidate ran on the Change and Reform electoral list.

The 2007 by-election

Further difficulties with members of the current members of the March 14 coalition occurred in the Ment by-election in 2007. The assassination of Pierre Gemayel (Kataeb, March 14) in 2007 brought a by-election to the Metn. The FPM (affiliated March 8) won this seat from Kataeb after a very close electoral battle that led to tension and minor crowd trouble. According to Tashnak, after the Metn bi-election in 2007, “Amine Gemayel accused the Tashnak of trying to ‘impose its will on the people of Metn’, implying that the Armenians were neither proper Lebanese nor true Christians”

The 2009 elections

Although the difficult relations between March 14 members and the alliance with Aoun in the 2005 elections would seem to mean Tashnak would align with the FPM this is not necessarily the case. The principal reason being: the Armenians historical policy of following the President; not wanting to be with one political bloc; the desire to establish their own parliamentary bloc. These reasons necessitate that they situate themselves in the middle of Lebanese political system. Further to this, according to anaylsts interviewed by the the Daily Star, the transnational nature of the Armenian community means that there are Armenians in Syria that appear to want to push Tashnak towards March 8 and American Armenians that have reportedly want to push Tashnak towards March 14 (see Daily Star).

Enter Michel Murr who exited an alliance with FPM and has opened a delicate partnership in the Metn with March 14 (Michel Murr, father of Elias Murr who is the Defence Minister selected by the President). One possibility is that the Armenians align with the FPM but also put Murr on their list and not his political allies. But if Murr decides to go along with March 14 and they place non-Tashnak candidates on their list for the Armenian seats in the Metn/Beirut I then Tashnak will find it difficult to find a balancing position or be able to form their parliamentary bloc and stop non-Tashnak Armenias supported by March 14 from gaining parliamentary seats. The balancing act in Lebanon's polarized political system will be a immense political challenge. It may well be that the decision will be pushed to the final hour. Tahsnak will no doubt hope to follow in the footsteps of the President they wish to serve.

EU Observation Report 05

2009-03-23T17:32:00.000+02:00

10 observations and recommendations that were learned by the EU Election Observation Mission to Lebanon in 2005:

1. The observers stated that the election took place in a peaceful manner and within the existing framework for elections. But stated there was a need for urgent reform of the legal and election framework.

This took place in Doha but did not occur in line with what the EU was suggesting.

2. The debate on money politics was heated. This led to the EU observers calling for greater monitoring of election campaigning and financial disclosure.

This has been followed up by the Lebanese government and for the first time the media will be monitored and the amount of money spent on campaigning limited.

3. Key constitutional provisions have not been implemented, namely a bicameral Parliamentary system that would reduce the role of confessionalism.

This situation has got worse following the 08 Doha accords that created the current electoral law that has increased confessionalism in the electoral system.

4. Voter registration showed serious shortcomings.

This has been a major campaign for the Ministry of Interior and is probably one of the greatest improvements since the 05 elections.

5. Absence of uniform ballots.

Still a major issue in the upcoming election. An issue that Lebanese politicians all agreed was one that needed to be reformed and then voted against reform when the chance came in parliament.

6. Voter should be registered in their actual place of residence.

This is still not the case.

7. Voting should take place on a single day to allow for equal campaigning opportunities.

This has been agreed to and will take place if the elections go ahead.

8. Limitations on electoral rights for the army and police should be abolished.

This is yet to occur.

9. Lower the voting age to 18.

This has just been passed through parliament but will not be implemented in time for the upcoming elections.

10. A independent electoral body should be established to be in charge of all electoral processes.

This has been established in the form of the SCEC (Supervisory Commission on the Electoral Campaign)

The full report: EU Observation Mission 2005

Voting age lowered to 18 but not until 2010

2009-03-19T14:46:00.000+02:00

The Lebanese Parliament has agreed to lower the voting age from 21 to 18. It has been confirmed that the amendment to the law will take place in time for 18 year olds to vote in the 2010 Municipality elections. However, for the upcoming 2009 elections the voting age will remain at 21.

Parliement vote on lowering voting age to 18

2009-03-19T10:27:00.000+02:00

Today MPs will vote in decisive legislative session on whether to lower the voting age from 21 to 18. However, even if parliament votes for the change it is highly unlikely that all the measures needed to implement the law would be able to be completed before the upcoming 2009 election. As lowering the age to 18 would need a constitutional amendment and below, a briefing document from IFES, illustrates the elongated process of consitutional amendment in Lebanon.

IFES Briefing Note on Amending Constitution 29 Nov 07 IFES Briefing Note on Amending Constitution 29 Nov 07 deensharp A IFES briefing paper on the process that has to be undertaken to amend the constitution.

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Academic Work lebanon parliament amending lebanons co

Lebanon's Main Political Parties

2009-03-18T14:55:00.000+02:00

The Main Lebanese Political Parties The Main Lebanese Political Parties deensharp A basic guide to the main Lebanese political parties in Lebanon; a list of the main factions; the Lebanese government and cabinet.

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Published Research Academic Work main political parti lebanese forces

March 14 Launch Electoral Platform

2009-03-17T15:56:00.000+02:00

March 14 have launched a 14 point plan for the elections:

1. The protection of Lebanon from Israeli attacks and the retrieval of Shebaa Farms through the full execution of Resolution 1701.

2. The imposition of the state authority over all its lands according to the Taёf Accord so that “there are no weapons besides those of the state’s”

3. The termination of the disagreement with Syria which adopted since 1974 the policy of military neutralization and establish normal and friendly ties with it according to the Taёf Accord and common interests. This requires the termination of Syrian intrusion in Lebanese affairs and the continuation of diplomatic ties and the demarcation of borders between the two states starting from Shebaa farms. This also requires settling the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails and the termination of military bases located outside Palestinian refugee camps but is under Syrian operatives. Reconsidering unjust agreements made during the Syrian tutelage era will also be required.

4. To keep Lebanon in harmony with the international community based on the UN charter and the international resolutions, as well as avoiding any confrontation with the international community for sectarian reasons contradicting its effective interest and for tensed slogans that does not reflect its pluralism, and to reactivate coexistence in Lebanon.

5. Getting back the traditional role of Lebanon among Arab countries contributing to the achievement of an Arab solidarity that is the first condition for the Arabs to have their rights, and the commitment to support the Palestinian people’s struggle and unity under the leadership of the PLO to attain an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as capital, following the “two states” solution and the Arab peace initiative.

6. The full commitment to refuse the resettlement of the Palestinian brothers in Lebanon, and approving the law project for a constitution amendment proposed by March 14 MPs regarding this subject 6 months earlier and that requires the unanimity of the parliament in order to amend the constitutional article of the resettlement.

7. The completion of the establishment of the state and its institutions, after the charter of coexistence, with the application of the Taef agreement and the constitution, reaching a democratic state that ensures equality between the citizens in rights and duties despite their sectarian affiliation. The initiation of a new electoral law reducing the electoral age to 18.

8. To commit to the requirements of the international tribunal for Lebanon to unveil the truth and to establish justice, immunizing Lebanon’s sovereignty, putting an end to the political assassinations.

9. Procure the necessary moves insuring the comeback of all displaced finalizing the file completely.

10. Protecting Lebanon and the Lebanese from the world financial crisis, preserving the monetary stability, keeping the inflation at law rates, and to profit from Paris 3 conference.

11. To commit to economical, financial and monetary policies in all fields and throughout Lebanon, eliminating the inconvenient in front of investments giving the priority to projects insuring quality job opportunities to the Lebanese.

12. Giving a bigger role to the woman in the social, economical and political life, and to enable the woman legally after law amendments especially that of the elections.

13. To commit to the Lebanese expatriates in the world supporting the independence of Lebanon, its sovereignty and prosperity, ensuring they have the same duties and rights as the local inhabitants, giving them the opportunity of investing and working in Lebanon.

14. Giving additional care to the environmental issues in Lebanon with a national strategy to apply the laws regarding this subject.

The New Electoral Districts

2009-03-13T17:13:00.000+02:00

The new election law states that there are now 26 electoral districts as opposed to 14. The new election law set districts based on the administrative boundaries (or Qadas) that were adopted in the 1960 Election Law. But this election is not using the 1960 election law itself just the Qada system.

Pictured: The new electoral districts

Assessment of the Electoral Framework

2009-03-13T16:02:00.001+02:00

Assessment of the Electoral Framework is a fascinating report published by Democracy Reporting International and the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections (LADE) published in December 2008.

The document highlights the pros and cons of the new electoral law that was introduced in Sept 08.

To be kind and start with the positives the law has improved, according to the report, the following:
1. Additional safeguards against electoral fraud such as transparent ballot boxes and inking of fingers.

2. Holding of elections in one day

3. Detailed regulation of campaign financing and media coverage

4. Oversight by supervisory commission SCEC (Supervisory Commission on the Electoral Campaign) - however, the report questions how effective this commission in the Lebanese political context.

The negatives of this new law are seen as:
1. Most serious negative aspect is the ballot paper. On the left is a prepared ballot paper, the most common type of ballor paper, for the Baabda-Aley district in the 2005 election that was given out to voters. Voters can cross out who they don't want to vote for and write in the name of their alternative choice. However, as can be seen this ballot paper does not leave much room for such choice. Thus, as the report states the issue of introducing an offical ballor paper is the most glaring omission in the new law. In some cases, the report states, napkins have been used as ballot papers.
(All this is despite politicians promising that they would introduce an official uniform ballot paper. However, when it came to vote in parliament those that said they would vote for change did quite the opposite.)

2.The report also states that becuase the new law accentuates confessional differences this system is "increasing the long-term potential for conflict in the country."

3. The security environment remains a concern.

To read the report in full:www.democracy-reporting.org/index.html

Key election dates from the Lebanese electoral law

2009-03-13T15:39:00.000+02:00

ELECTION DAY
SUNDAY 7th JUNE - 07:00 Opening of polls (Art. 80 (1))
19:00 Closing of polls (Art. 93)

Thurs 6th June - Prohibition of media coverage of election campaigns (Art. 73)

Thurs 28th May - Prohibition of opinion polling (Article 74(4))

Wednesday 8th April - Deadline for the registration of candidates. If only one candidate is declared for a seat he/she is declared the winner (Article 49(1))

Election Campainging and Facebook

2009-03-12T11:03:00.001+02:00

Facebook is going to be an instrumental campaigning tool in this election. In the virtual campaigning world most candidates will revert to the use of facebook rather than websites or other mediums. The use of facebook in the Lebanese elections has already began to show its prominence with many candidates setting up profile pages, facebook groups and events.

The role of facebook in this election will be continued to be looked at in this blog.

A Diamond in the Sun (http://adiamondinsunlight.wordpress.com/) has given a interesting commentary on the sort of campaigning on the internet Lebanese politicians are expected to carry out.

Video spot for Voter registration (English subtitles)

2009-03-10T18:37:00.000+02:00

This video was done by the Interior Ministry to encourage, for the first time, people to check the voter registration.

Voter Registration

2009-03-10T16:42:00.000+02:00

For the first time in Lebanon, the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities has launched a media campaign to raise awareness of the voter registration process.

The campaign intends to spread awareness of the public’s right to check their details on the voter register.

Between 10 February and 10 March, the Election Law provides that all Lebanese citizens have the right to check whether they are correctly included on the voter register before it is published on 30 March.

The outreach campaign by the Ministry, created by IFES and Impact BBDO, encouraged public inspection of the voter register is important through high profile TV and radio spots as well as newspaper adverts and flyers.

Further to this, the Minister of Interior H.E. Mr. Ziyad Baroud sent a personal reminder through a text message to 500.000 mobile phone users and 1.8 million emails throughout Lebanon of the importance of checking their details on the voter register.

The Lebanese Electoral System

2009-03-10T11:56:00.000+02:00

The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), for whom I am the Communication Associate, has just released a briefing paper explaining and outlining the Lebanese electoral systems. The paper can be found at http://www.ifes.org/publication/56c0cdaa64aa2cad85b3f5996e37cb4c/IFES_Lebanon_ESB_Paper030209.pdf

Information included:

1. The Lebanese Parliament: confessional seats
2. Lebanon’s Electoral Districts
3. Beirut’s Electoral Districs
4. Distribution of parliamentary seats by confession and district
5. Core Elements of the Lebanese Electoral System
6. The Electoral System in practice: the example of Baabda
7. Lebanese Ballot Papers and Electoral Lists: an overview

Disability and the Electoral process

2009-03-10T10:45:00.000+02:00

Here is an article I have just written for IRIN on disability and the electoral process:

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83387

Virtual elections

2009-03-10T10:26:00.000+02:00

Here is a great couple of electoral maps:

http://elections.elnashra.com/vote

http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar/News/Elections/Map09

Elections and the internet

2009-03-05T21:57:00.000+02:00

The new electoral law that was signed post-Doha accords not only put a limit on campaign spending at 150LP million, with an added variable that depends on the number of voters within the electoral district determined by the Council of Ministers but also stated that the private and public media wishing to take part in electoral advertising should create “a price list and information on the “spaces” it intends to consecrate for electoral advertising and promotion”. What is so interesting about the new electoral law and electoral campaigning is that the dawn of the internet is ignored. All references to the law refer to “radio, TV or printed media”. In Lebanon according to the International Telecommunication Union 24% of the country now have access to internet; the role the internet will played in 2005 was relatively important, the 2009 elections will see the World Wide Web move center stage. No doubt after these elections there will be calls for regulation as spam mail, abusive rumors spread through the web and website are increasingly set up through the internet. However, those trying to regulate the internet will find that it is just as possible as trying to regulate the politicians.

Lebanese Youth and Democracy

2009-03-04T16:36:00.000+02:00

In Lebanon the debate over whether the voting age should be lowered from 21 to 18 has been prominent in the lead up to the general elections in June of this year. Despite the debate ending in paralysis and the voting age remaining at 21; the drive to lower the voting age to 18 continues with the 2010 municipal elections targeted. Nahwa al-Muwatiniya (NA-AM) a local Lebanese NGO and, with the assistance of IFES, in their project Baddi Koun Mas’oul is ensuring that if the voting age is lowered then the youth are not left subservient to the Lebanese electoral system. NA-AM through their project Baddi Koun Mas’oul is educating and empowering students across the country through informing them of their rights and duties with regard to voting and educating them about the democratic process.

The Baddi Koun Mas’oul project is structured into a four to six hour session and is done with a group of roughly 50 students that are 16 to 17. These students are taken through a nine step process that takes them through the different aspects of the democratic process. Within this nine step process the students are introduced to different democratic ideas such as the difference between a majority and proportional electoral system. The students are also informed of their rights and duties as responsible citizens within the context of the democratic system and the ethical standards required for the integrity of the electoral procedure. Students then learn about more technical issues concerning elections that include: election administration, observation and media regulations. The program is being rolled out in 52 state schools across the country in both rural and urban areas.

In the village of Diddeh based in Northern Lebanon, 53 excited 16 year olds listened to Tamim Bou Karroun, the Project Coordinator for Nahwa al-Muwatin. Bou Karroun and six trainees organized the students into groups to form the election administration body two observer teams and three political parties. The youth quickly arranged themselves into their different parties that they then named and debated about what their demands would be. The three parties they formed were Reform and Future, Our Voice and Black Hand. Demands were made such as: refurbishing the school, realizing student needs and teaching more foreign languages apart from English, Arabic and French that are already on offer! After the nominated spokesperson from each party read out the demands, the youth were then were ready to vote for who they wanted to elect. “We do two elections for the youth to show them the difference between a proportional election system and a majority,” said Tamim Bou Karroum. Election booths were set up with the help of a black curtain and some sticky tape while the electoral administrators ensured that each voter was registered, allowed to vote in private and ticked off the electoral list. After all the votes were in each vote was read out, accompanied by much excitement as to who would win. In the end it was a tie with each party gaining one seat each and three votes being cancelled.

As Nahwa al-Muwatiniya continues this project to other schools across the country it is allowing hundreds of pupils to gain their first real exposure to the culture and process of democracy. While it is likely that many of the students involved in this project will not get the chance to vote until they are 21; Baddi Koun Mas’oul is preparing the ground if the law is changed by ensuring that the very people whom this law may apply to are made aware of what it means to be engaged in the electoral process. Most importantly Baddi Koun Mas’oul is engaging young people in the process of democracy and embedding the concepts that come with the democratic process. Nahwa al-Muwatiniya through Baddi Koun Mas’oul is building a firmer foundation within the youth of the democratic process, from which Lebanon will hope, to build a stronger democratic system.

Hezbollah launch electoral campaign

2009-03-02T09:16:00.000+02:00

Hezbollah's Shiekh Qassem on Sunday launched the electoral campaign for the party. "We consider these elections to be important, but not fateful," Sheikh Naim Qassem told a news conference.

March 8 and March 14: Coalition or Competition?

2009-02-28T14:33:00.000+02:00

Franjieh, head of the Marada movement (March 8), repeated the stance - set out by Nasrallah - that Lebanon has to be run through consensus. While Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement (March 14) reasserted, to NOW Lebanon, that the upcoming elections are to be a democratic competition against the March 8 coalition.

The Christians and the Elections

2009-02-27T12:33:00.001+02:00

The Shia have Hassan Nasrallah, the Sunni Saad Hariri and the Druze Walid Junblatt. The Christians however, have many prominent figures fighting for their attention the most significant being: Amin Gemayel (Kataeb), Samir Geagea (LF), Michel Aoun (FPM) and Sleiman Franjieh (Marada). This contest over Christian leadership is pulling the community apart with the vital split being between March 14 aligned Christian parties (Gemayel's Kataeb and Geagea's LF) and March 8 (Michel Aoun's FPM and Franjieh's Marada). Further to this, there are the many Christians that are not supporters of any Christian party or any Christian leader. These non-aligned Christian will no doubt be intensively courted during the elections.

The internal division means that this election is a pivotal and dangerous one for the Christian population of Lebanon - unlike the last election of 2005 where the Christians were largely insignificant. The Christians will have a vital say in who attains the edge in the balance of power March 8/March 14; Shia/Sunni; Hezbollah/Future; allies of the US and Saudi Arabia/Syria and Iran.

In the upcoming general election the areas with a high risk of violence are expected to be those with predominately Christian populations and prominent numbers of both March 8 and March 14 supporters, such as in the Metn, Kora, Zgharta and Batroun.

There have already been several gun battles over the last few months. One of the most prominent incidents was gun fight between the Lebanese Forces (March 14) and Marada (March 8) that started over a argument about political posters. Most recently an argument in the coastal town of Shekka in the north of Lebanon developed into a fight and exchange of gunfire between Marada and the Lebanese Forces.

International Supervision Approved

2009-02-27T10:59:00.001+02:00

A cabinet session approved the decree on international supervision of the parliamentary elections and also approved the Supervisory Commission on the Election Campaign proposal that set the expenditure ceiling of each candidate.

Harri and Nasrallah exchange

2009-02-27T10:44:00.000+02:00

An important exchange has occurred between Future Movement leader Hariri and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Harri has stated that he will not form a coalition with Hezbollah or any March 8th group stating that the Lebanese must make their democratic between March 8 and March 14. While Nasrallah in a speech claimed that the realities of Lebanon necessitates a coalition between the two blocs and is the only way Lebanon can function.